Western Caribbean Remains Hot Spot of Tropical Weather Development

While it has been largely quiet in the Caribbean over the last week, things are looking to heat up again heading into the last week of October. Meanwhile, the East Pacific has seen some life this week. Here is the latest look at the tropics.

Western Caribbean Remains Area of Concern

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are keeping a close eye on the western Caribbean, a part of the Atlantic basin that has birthed several tropical weather events this year. A new threat is likely to spring to life in the Caribbean Sea during the last week of October.

This is the time of the tropical weather season when features tend to form closer to the U.S. coastline. The most likely areas for development at the tail end of the season are throughout the Caribbean, in the Gulf of Mexico, and off of the southeastern coastline of the U.S.

The warm waters still circulating in the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea make this part of the basin ripe for development. In addition to the warm sea surface temperatures, the unseasonable warmth is extending deep into the ocean. The NHC has currently assigned a medium chance of tropical development in this area of the Caribbean between late October and early November.

Meteorologists are growing more certain that rain showers and thunderstorms will come together in this area next week. The bigger question mark is if the presence of wind shear will break apart any developing features. Should wind shear levels decrease, it will be more likely that a named storm is able to take hold and grow.

This emerging feature is being fueled by the typical Central American Gyre common this time of the year. Storms that come out of a gyre are generally slow to organize and intensify. The result is an extended period of stormy weather and rough sea conditions across the Caribbean prior to the formal designation of a depression or named storm.

Most storms that ignite in this zone of the Caribbean during the end of October usually move to the west and into Central America or to the north-northeast back toward Cuba, Hispaniola, or potentially into the Bahamas. That said, forecasters are warning that it is too early to rule out a journey toward Florida or into the southeastern corner of the U.S.

All residents and interests in the Caribbean, Mexico, Florida, and the southeastern U.S. should be vigilant about the potential development of this tropical weather maker. Patty is the next name up on the pre-determined list of monikers for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Hurricane Kristy a Major Storm in the East Pacific