Asteroid 2024 YR4 Might Hit the Moon in 2032

In 2032, an asteroid large enough to destroy a city may be on a near-miss course to Earth but has a small chance of striking our moon. 

The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, initially had a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth, but after gathering a few more months of data, astronomers have labeled it a non-threat. The implications of an asteroid impact, even with the very minimal chance, had many pondering defense systems against asteroids, with even Elon Musk making statements. 

While the Earth remains clear of the orbit path of 2024 YR4, the chances of a lunar impact are increasing. Astronomers have gathered data from the James Webb Space Telescope and used digital simulations to estimate the asteroid will have a 3.8% chance of hitting the moon, rising from 1.7% just a few months ago. 

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"Experts at NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have updated 2024 YR4’s chance of impacting the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032 from 1.7% as of late February to 3.8% based on the Webb data and observations from ground-based telescopes," according to a statement on Nasa's website.