Diving Into the Long-Range U.S. Fall Forecast

The start of meteorological fall is right around the corner, falling on Sunday, September 1. However, do not let the calendar fool you. The long-range forecast is indicating that summer will linger much longer for a large portion of the U.S. Who will see the cooler conditions first and when might you expect to see the first snowflakes of the season? All that and more is in this U.S. fall forecast.

Much of U.S. Will Continue to See Warm Weather Heading Into the Fall Months

Many portions of the U.S. will need to delay pulling out those cozy sweaters and ordering that first pumpkin spice latte of the season. A warmer than typical autumn is in the forecast for the majority of the country this year as summer will be slow to let go.

This is not good news for areas of the eastern U.S. that have been experiencing a flash drought as of late. A hotter and drier than normal summer is responsible for this drought, primarily focused on the area from southern Pennsylvania and into the Carolinas. While the arrival of Tropical Storm Debby and its associated moisture helped to provide a bit of relief, it was not enough to erase the impacts of the dry summer.

Unfortunately, the early forecast is calling for more of the same for this region. This will translate to the drought hanging on until late-season storms and the hope of more tropical moisture works to chip away at the drought. The dry conditions are also bad news for the Great Lakes and the Northeast, areas that may see an elevated threat of wildfires heading into the early part of the fall.

What About the Western U.S.?

On the topic of wildfires, the western U.S. will see an even higher risk of wildfires to start the fall season. While it has been a relatively calm season by historical standards, the activity still has plenty of time to pick up as the dry season is likely to linger longer than it did in 2023.

The Pacific Northwest is one corner of the country that will see an early arrival of fall. This will help to bring down the threat of wildfires thanks to cooler temperatures and the onset of the fall storm season for most of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.