Asteroid 2024 YR4: Updated Impact Risk Assessment and Ongoing Monitoring

Recent observations have significantly reduced the estimated probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.

Initially, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory reported a 3.1% chance of collision, the highest ever recorded for an asteroid of this size. However, as of February 21, 2025, improved visibility and additional data have lowered this probability to approximately 0.16%.

Monitoring Efforts and Future Observations

The European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA continue to monitor 2024 YR4 closely. The asteroid, measuring between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter, was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile.

Astronomers utilize ground-based observatories and the James Webb Space Telescope to obtain more precise estimates of the size and trajectory of 2024 YR4. Efforts by these professionals aim to establish more accurate data, with current expectations implying a decrease in impact probability.