What You Need to Know About the Chances of More Tropical Weather

The last few weeks will go down in history as one of the most active tropical weather periods in the Atlantic basin. Two deadly hurricane strikes on the U.S. in less than two weeks have claimed the lives of nearly 250 people in Florida and up into the interior portions of the Southeast. Unfortunately, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are already keeping a close eye on the latest potential tropical weather development. Here is what the experts are currently watching.

What is Happening in the Tropics?

Meteorologists are already monitoring the Atlantic basin for more signs of tropical activity. One of the potential threats is coming together in the same part of the Atlantic that birthed Milton.

The good news for those dealing with the cleanup and recovery efforts in Florida and beyond is that immediate tropical activity will be limited through next week. This will give crews a bit of a breather from significant rainfall. However, the tropics could fire up again late next week and into the following weekend.

Yet another Central American gyre is forecast to come to life later next week. A gyre is a slowly spinning large area of low pressure that often lays the groundwork for rain showers and thunderstorms that can go on to form tropical systems.

The latest gyre is forecast to set up across the western Caribbean. This is the same part of the basin that supported Helene's development a few weeks ago. Exceptionally warm ocean waters measuring in the 80s will help to fuel the development of the gyre.

The record warm water is not just toasty on the surface. The heat is extending into the depths of the ocean, further amplifying the ability of the storms to take root and grow. This is because deep warm water keeps waves from cooling the surface of the ocean.

Wind shear is also expected to be low throughout this part of the Atlantic next week. Low amounts of wind shear are typically associated with a higher chance of tropical activity. The most likely time frame for tropical development is between October 17 and 19.