Western Caribbean Supporting Another Possible Tropical Weather Event

Meteorologists are monitoring the western Caribbean for more tropical action in the week ahead. Here is a look at what is becoming more concerning to hurricane experts.

No Slowing Down in the Tropics

After a blockbuster few weeks, the Atlantic basin is still showing signs of enhanced tropical activity. A large zone of rain showers and thunderstorms churning across the Caribbean Sea could once again impact the U.S. as the season is not slowing down heading into the back half of October.

This area of the Caribbean has been home to the start of several tropical weather makers this year. Experts are blaming the exceptionally warm ocean waters in this part of the basin for the heightened amount of activity this year.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are warning that this area of concern could once again head in the direction of Florida. The Sunshine State experienced two direct major hurricane strikes in a period of less than two weeks. In addition to Florida, this feature could also spell trouble for the western Caribbean, the U.S. Gulf Coast, and Central America.

The rain shower activity began to pick up in the western Caribbean over the last few days. This activity is predicted to become more organized heading into the new week. As this happens, it could begin to rotate and create its own area of low pressure. Should that happen as predicted, the feature would feed on the warm waters circulating beneath it. Record high levels of water temperature readings are currently present in this part of the Caribbean.

In addition to supporting the initial formation of tropical weather features, these warm waters are also helping to amplify the rapid intensification of these monsters. Most of this year's hurricanes have undergone periods of fast growth over a short period of time due to the warm waters in their paths.

Because a possible new tropical feature is still days away, the potential paths are more uncertain. One path shows the system tracking to the west and toward Central America and the southern fringe of Mexico.

A second potential track takes the feature toward the Florida peninsula. It is unlikely that a feature this late in the season would veer toward the northwest and into the Texas Gulf Coast region.

How long the system spends over the warm ocean waters will determine its potential intensity. A track that heads toward Central America will likely be less intense as it will have less time over the water to strengthen before it makes landfall. Conversely, a more northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico would translate to more time over water, increasing the odds that the storm will evolve into a hurricane.

Interests throughout Central America, southern Mexico, and Florida should continue to monitor this developing system. There is also the chance that any potential tropical weather maker drifts toward the central portions of the Gulf Coast.