Waves of Torrential Rain and Thunderstorms Targeting the South

The southern U.S. will remain under the threat of more rain and thunderstorms well into next week, raising the risk of flooding as the moisture continues to fall. Here are the details of the soggy forecast.

Forecasters Warn of Likelihood of Flooding in Southern U.S.

The train of storms that has been bringing wintry impacts to the northern half of the country is also impacting the southern fringe with heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. The warmer air located near the Gulf of Mexico is working to fuel this persistent rash of storms. Forecasters are warning that the next two storms on deck will likely end up being the most powerful of the last few weeks. The end result will be the most significant severe storm and flooding chances since last fall for this part of the U.S.

The region was under the gun for volatile storms once again late Wednesday. The line of activity stretched from the upper Texas coast through southern Louisiana before creeping into parts of Alabama and Georgia.

By Thursday, the focus of the storm's activity will center along the Florida Panhandle and up into the southeastern corner of Alabama and Georgia. The storm cells will pack a variety of impacts ranging from torrential rain, high winds, small hail, and the chance of isolated tornadoes.

More Storms Forecast to Ignite on Saturday

Heading into the weekend, the severe weather is forecast to ignite again on Saturday in an area located farther to the west than the late week activity. For instance, a large part of the upper Texas coast and up into central and eastern Kentucky will be in the bullseye of Saturday's storms.

Houston is forecast to see the threat of thunderstorms throughout the day Saturday before the moisture devolves into straight rain showers in the evening hours. Winds will be whipping around from the south-southwest at 10 to 20 mph. It will be a muggy day in Houston with a high of about 74 degrees. However, a cold front coming in behind the storm will bring the overnight lows down into the low 40s with Sunday's high struggling to break out of the mid 50s despite the sunny skies.

Atlanta will see a dreary Saturday with cloudy skies and scattered rain showers. The rain will intensify in the overnight hours with about an inch of new moisture on tap. Winds will also pick up overnight, hitting speeds of 10 to 20 mph from the south. There will be little change in the temperatures throughout the day and night in Atlanta with highs and lows bouncing around in the low to mid 50s.

The rain will stick around into Sunday morning in Atlanta. But the biggest weather headline in the Peach City to close out the weekend will be the increasing wind speeds. Sunday's forecast is calling for winds out of the west-northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts potentially reaching 40 mph at times.

Nashville will bear the brunt of the impacts from the Saturday storm. This part of the region is forecast to see persistent thunderstorms that usher in the potential of heavy rainfall. The Music City is bracing for 1 to 2 inches of rain during the day Saturday and another 1 to 2 inches of accumulation during the overnight hours. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph while highs will top out at about 60 degrees.

Like the rest of the region, cooler temperatures are on the horizon for the back half of the region in Nashville. After seeing lows slide into the mid 30s overnight Saturday, the mercury will only climb into the upper 30s for highs on Sunday. This reading is well below the historical average for the middle of February in Nashville.

Those hoping to enjoy a nice day at the beach in Pensacola may be disappointed with the forecast. The beach resort town will wake up to morning rain showers on Saturday. While the rain will let up in the afternoon, it will come back with a vengeance after the sun goes down. The forecast models are currently predicting that Pensacola will see periods of heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms overnight. Highs will reach the mid 70s before slipping into the mid 60s under the cover of darkness.

Some of the most powerful storms that fire up on Saturday could generate tornadoes. It is not out of the question that any twister that forms could stay on the ground for miles, raising the risk to property and lives.

Sunday's Forecast Calling for Expansion of Storm Zone and More Flooding Concerns

The possibility of volatile thunderstorms will push up into the Carolinas and Virginia on Sunday. The cumulative effects of the recent storms will translate to a serious risk of flash flooding. The rainfall from each individual storm over the last few weeks is filling streams and other waterways in the region, making them more vulnerable to overflowing and flooding.

The highest risk of flooding into Thursday evening will be across a wide swath of land stretching from northeastern Texas and over into the coastlines of North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland. The two storms this week will end up dumping widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches in this zone. Localized pockets of 6 inches of rain will also be a possibility. The most vulnerable area to flooding will continue to be the portion of the southern Appalachians that was hit by Hurricane Helene last September.

The rain from the upcoming weekend storm could be enough to trigger flooding issues, particularly in areas that also saw meaningful moisture earlier in the week. For instance, the lower sections of the Mississippi and Tennesee valleys as well as the southern Appalachians will be the most likely to experience flash flooding across urban areas and near small streams. Some of the secondary rivers in this region could also overflow their banks.

Forecasters are predicting that the storm this weekend will unleash 1 to 2 inches of rain in the eastern U.S. A more localized area from the middle portions of the Mississippi Valley and over to the Ohio Valley could record 4 to 8 inches of rain.

When all is said and done, the combined rainfall amounts from all of the systems could hover between 15 and 20 inches. Rainfall of this degree will cause the ground to become overly saturated, exacerbating the runoff with each successive storm.

Because flooding in waterways is a slow-moving affair, the concerns could persist into next week even after the skies clear up. Residents in this part of the country who live near unprotected areas near small rivers and streams will want to be ready to take action and move to higher ground if needed.

The threat of flooding next week may move into some parts of the Ohio Valley, the central Appalachians, and the mid-Atlantic. This is an area that recorded measurable snowfall over the past week. The incoming rain will accelerate the snow melt process and cause ice jams along some waterways, adding to the risks of flooding.

Be sure to check back throughout the weekend to learn more about this developing situation.

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