River Flooding Remains a Concern for the Lower Mississippi Basin

As forecasters have been warning for weeks, the water levels in the lower portion of the Mississippi River are surging with more rain headed in this direction. Here is a look at the current situation and the potential for flooding in the days ahead.

Flooding Threat Remains for the Mississippi River Basin

It has been nearly two weeks since a heavy rainfall event inundated the Mississippi Valley. However, the impacts are still being felt across the lower section of the valley as the water from the secondary rivers and streams makes its way into the mighty Mississippi. Unfortunately, more rain is on the way and will exacerbate the threat of flooding.

The storm that kicked off the month dumped 8 to 16 inches of rain in a period of just 72 to 96 hours. The rain came up from the Caribbean, amplifying its effects during a time in which tropical moisture is rare. The water left from the early April storm has been flowing down from the Ozark Mountains and into the Tennessee and Ohio River basins. This water will continue to travel downstream and into the Mississippi River as the week progresses.

A calm period of weather followed the monster rain event, allowing most of the streams and rivers in the region to recede. However, that was not the case for all of the waterways in the flatter terrains. For instance, the White and St. Frances rivers located in Arkansas reached major flood stage this week. This surge is now moving downstream along the Mississippi River in the zone below the point of the Ohio River confluence.

The latest forecast models predict that the shores of the Mississippi River in Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana will reach moderate to major flood stage over the next 10 days. While water levels crested at the river's point in Osceola, Arkansas, this week, it will not likely crest in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, until later in the month. This is not uncommon as river flooding is generally a slowly developing situation.

The unprotected areas of the Mississippi River will see the worst of the flooding. The high waters may persist for several days before the crest occurs. Agricultural interests in the region will bear the brunt of the flooding with some fields likely remaining under water for weeks.

Upcoming Forecast Calling for More Rain

The upcoming forecast is calling for more rain in this part of the country heading into the Easter holiday weekend. The repeated downpours are forecast to expand farther to the northwest than the early April storm, stretching from central and northwestern portions of Texas and up into southern and central Illinois. This will put southeastern Oklahoma, the northwestern corner of Arkansas, and central and southern Missouri in the primary impact zone for the heavy rain.

This upcoming rain event is not anticipated to dump the rainfall that was recorded earlier in the month. However, the rain will still be enough to raise the risk of urban and small stream flooding. Water levels across the Red River of the South, the Arkansas River, and the lower portion of the Missouri River are all expected to rise substantially as a result of the incoming moisture.

Once again, heavy rain is in the forecast for parts of the White and St. Frances rivers in Arkansas. Other major rivers that should prepare for rising water levels include the Meramec River in Missouri and the Kaskaskia and Little Wabash rivers in Illinois.

You can expect the moisture machine to get going again on Friday, moving to the east and the south as the weekend progresses. A second crest along the lower Mississippi is possible as the fresh wave of rain falls on the already full waterway.

The good news is that the upcoming weather maker is not expected to linger as long as the previous storm. The brevity of this storm will limit the amount of rain that falls over the Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee basins.

Timing of the Rain

When can you expect the rain to hit your particular community? Dallas is forecast to see rain showers and thunderstorms develop after midnight on Friday and into Saturday. Winds will also pick up intensity by the end of the week in the metroplex, hitting speeds of 15 to 25 mph. It will be a stormy Saturday in Dallas with widespread thunderstorms in the forecast.

The arrival of the clouds and moisture will bring the mercury down from highs in the mid 80s on Friday to readings that top out in the low 70s on Saturday in Dallas. The storms will persist into the overnight hours on Saturday with rain showers potentially marring Easter Sunday services. The moisture will move out of the Dallas area by the end of the day Sunday.

You will find a similar forecast heading to the northeast. Springfield, Missouri, will also see the threat of rain and thunderstorms increase later in the day on Friday. Saturday will be a messy affair with widespread storms throughout the day and night. Temperatures will tumble from a high of about 78 degrees on Friday to the mid 50s for a high on Saturday.

Sunday is also expected to be a washout in Springfield with the rain lingering throughout the day. Forecasters are warning that the city in the southwestern corner of the state could see times of heavy rainfall on the holiday. It will remain chilly with highs in the upper 50s and winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.

Continuing to the northeast, Peoria, Illinois, will see the threat of a stray thunderstorm on Friday afternoon with the bulk of the moisture and stormy conditions expected to ignite after the sun goes down. It will be challenging to fit in outdoor activities throughout the weekend with a forecast of persistent rain showers and the risk of severe weather.

Like the rest of the region, temperatures will fall noticeably from Friday and into Saturday in Peoria. A high in the low 80s to bring the work week to a close will slip into the upper 50s on Saturday. Heavy rainfall is on tap for Peoria on Easter Sunday, particularly in the overnight hours.

The bottom line is that the holiday weekend is not looking promising for this part of the nation's midsection. Stay tuned as we continue to update the forecast as needed.

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