Flash Flooding Back on the Table for the Ozark Mountain Region

It could be a dangerous time to be outdoors this weekend for parts of Missouri and Arkansas as life-threatening flooding bears down on the region. Here is a look at the risks associated with this potential flooding event.

Ozark Mountain Region Prepares for Threat of Flash Flooding This Weekend

Forecasters are warning that a dangerous flooding setup is on the horizon for the Ozark Mountains in Missouri, Arkansas, and the northeastern corner of Oklahoma for the Easter weekend. Severe storms will also carry the risk of high winds, large hail, isolated tornadic activity, and frequent lightning strikes.

The most concerning aspect of this latest wave of storms will be the threat of flash flooding. The steep terrain and many waterways across the Ozarks inherently raise the risk of flooding when heavy rain is in the forecast. Rapid runoff down the hills of this region is often the culprit of flash flooding along small streams and in urban areas.

The forecast is calling for widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches beginning Friday and lasting through Sunday. The primary impact zone will be from the north-central portions of Texas and up into central Illinois and the southwestern edge of Indiana. While rainfall of this magnitude is not enough to create flash flooding concerns, heavier bands of rain delivering 4 to 8 inches are forecast for a smaller pocket within this zone.

What also worries meteorologists is that a bulk of this rain could fall within a period of a few hours. This is when the threat of flash flooding will be the highest.

Local officials are particularly concerned that people heading outside for the holiday weekend will be at risk of the severe impacts associated with this storm system. Campers spending time along small streams will want to be aware of the potential dangers, making it important to choose a campsite with safety in mind. Motorists should also pay heed to the possibility of flooded roadways.

The heavy rain will also eventually filter down into the Mississippi River. This part of the U.S. has been dealing with river flooding as a result of previous storms that unleashed massive amounts of rainfall across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. The good news is that the current surging water levels will ease before the rain from the upcoming storm makes its way into the Mississippi River.

This weekend's rainfall will instead first fill the tributary rivers that flow into the Mississippi. The Meramec River, the lower portion of the Missouri River, and the Arkansas River will also be under the gun for rising water levels. The Meramec River recently reached major flood stage as heavy rain dropped south of St. Louis.

Specific City Forecasts for Easter Weekend

The latest weather event will increase the chance of urban flash flooding for the St. Louis area. The Arch City is forecast to see the rain move in overnight Friday and into Saturday. The weekend will kick off on a rocky note with widespread thunderstorms in the forecast. The forecast is calling for about a half of an inch of rain in St. Louis overnight Saturday and into Sunday.

Easter Sunday is also shaping up to be a messy affair for St. Louis with rain showers in the morning evolving into thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Times of heavy rainfall will complicate outdoor plans for the holiday. Winds will be whipping around from the southeast at speeds of 10 to 20 mph. The temperatures will rise noticeably from Saturday to Sunday, going from a high in the upper 50s to start the weekend to readings in the mid 70s by Easter.

Tulsa is another major metro area bracing for meaningful amounts of moisture and the threat of severe weather out of this system. The city in the northeastern corner of Oklahoma is forecast to see thunderstorms erupt Friday evening, becoming more widespread overnight. The weather will not improve on Saturday with morning rain showers changing over to thunderstorms in the latter part of the day.

The moisture machine will intensify overnight Saturday in Tulsa with 1 to 2 inches of rain in the forecast. Easter Sunday will dawn with more rain, amounting to about another half of an inch. Tulsa is anticipating highs in the upper 70s on Friday, tumbling to the 60-degree mark for a top reading on Saturday. It will be slightly warmer on Sunday with a forecast high of about 66 degrees.

Moving to the northeast, Indianapolis will be on the fringe of this rain activity. While the city will not see the degree of impacts of St. Louis and Tulsa, it will still be a soggy start to the weekend. The metro area is forecast to see winds increasing throughout the day Friday, signaling the arrival of the weather maker. You can expect winds clocking in at 20 to 30 mph from the north-northwest with a high of about 80 degrees.

Conditions will change dramatically in Indianapolis overnight Friday with thunderstorms moving into the region. Saturday will bring more rain and the chance of stormy conditions with highs slipping into the mid 60s. While rain showers could mar the start to the holiday on Sunday, the precipitation is expected to dissipate later in the day. It will be slightly warmer on the holiday with a forecast high of 73 degrees.

River Flooding Concerns

Meteorologists caution that the river gauges used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers will not reflect the actual extent of the surging water until after the rain begins to fall. The latest forecast models indicate that this weekend's rain will not likely bring flooding along the rivers from north-central Texas and up into central Illinois. However, conditions can change on a dime with this dynamic and fluid forecast.

The flow of water from the early April rainfall is still working its way downstream the mighty Mississippi. Forecasters have been predicting for days that crests will continue to happen along some areas of the major waterway in southern Missouri, western Kentucky, northern Arkansas, Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. You can expect water levels in this region to hover at moderate to major flood stage at least through the weekend.

Conversely, it will likely be the end of the month before the river crests in areas of southern Arkansas, central and southern Mississippi, and the bulk of Louisiana. This is because river flooding is naturally a slow-moving event due to the time that it takes for water to flow from the smaller streams and tributaries into the major waterways.

The silver lining in this weekend's forecast is that the majority of the rainfall on tap over the next few days is expected to dodge the communities that experienced the deadly flooding in early April. The Kentucky River is not expected to see any major concerns with the upcoming rain. This is in contrast to the early April storm that unleashed 8 to 16 inches of rain over portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi river valleys.

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