Long-Range Forecast Predicting Heightened Tornadic Activity

This week's widespread severe weather is a reminder that tornado season is now in full swing. What does the long-range forecast have to say about what parts of the U.S. are likely to see the greatest amount of tornadic activity this year? This is what the experts are saying.

What to Know Heading into Tornado Season

March, April, and May typically generate the most severe weather events of the year. This happens due to the cold air from Canada clashing with the warm and moisture-rich air pushing up from the Gulf of Mexico. The collision of these competing air masses fuels the development of thunderstorms that can also produce tornadoes.

Severe weather can strike anywhere in the U.S. However, the area known as Tornado Alley has typically seen the greatest amount of activity simply due to the inherent environmental conditions present in this part of the country. The traditional Tornado Alley encompasses an area from Texas and up through Oklahoma and Kansas.

This year's long-range forecast is predicting that the worst of the thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely to spring up in area east of the classic Tornado Alley zone. The Mississippi Valley is expecting to take the brunt of the severe weather impacts in 2025.

Forecasters are predicting this zone to be the epicenter of the activity due to the large and stubborn area of high pressure that has been tethered to the Southwest. The presence of this high pressure in this corner of the country will mitigate the chances of widespread severe storms in the Plains. However, the atypically warm waters circulating in the Gulf of Mexico will support the development of more storms to the north and into the Mississippi valley.

Colder temperatures to the north will limit the risk of springtime thunderstorms or tornadoes. This is a change from last spring when unsesaonably warm temperatures early in the season translated to a premature appearance of thundersotms and their various impacts. It is also likely to be a more docile spring season for the Great Lakes, the eastern Ohio Valley, the mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. This is where cooler temperatures will pair with a stable atmosphere to promote calmer than usual conditions.