Latest La Niña Outlook from NOAA Indicates a Weaker Phase

The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is projecting that La Niña will indeed arrive, however, it will remain weak and short-lived. Here is a look at what the experts from NOAA relayed in their Thursday update.

New NOAA Report Points to Weaker La Niña

Although La Niña is still anticipated to hit by the end of January across the U.S., its impacts will have less of an influence on precipitation levels and temperatures. The most recent climate models indicate that the cooler than normal ocean water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to hit the designation needed to declare a weak La Niña pattern by the time that the calendar flips to February.

Forecasters are warning that while weaker La Niña phases tend to mitigate the impacts on weather around the world, the timing of this particular phase may mean that it will still drive the precipitation across the U.S. At the current time, neutral conditions are still in place over the equatorial Pacific despite a La Niña watch being in effect.

Scientists define La Niña as the phase in which the surface water temperatures of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific trend cooler than average. This cooling has a direct impact on atmospheric circulations on a global scale. The water temperatures in this part of the Pacific have yet to meet the levels needed for NOAA to officially declare that La Niña is here.

Meteorologists believe that the waters in this zone will eventually cool enough to meet the defined La Niña criteria. As such, a La Niña watch is still the prevailing story. NOAA is now predicting a 59% chance that La Niña conditions will arrive by the end of January based on the latest models and current atmospheric anomalies.

Because the formation is expected to happen late, it will likely be a short-lived phase. This means that neutral conditions will return between March and May.

What to Expect with the Weak La Niña