Jones Road Fire Now Stands at over 13,250 Acres Burned

Arson is to blame for the fire that has burned over 13,250 acres in New Jersey since Tuesday and sent air quality levels to dangerous levels. Here is the latest news on this situation as well as when you can expect rain to move into the region.

Man Charged with Aggravated Arson in New Jersey Fire

The New Jersey Forest Service confirmed on Thursday morning that they have charged a 19-year-old Ocean County man with aggravated arson in connection with the Jones Road Wildfire. Law enforcement officials said that Joseph Kling started a bonfire using wooden pallets on Tuesday morning, leaving the site of the fire without completely extinguishing the flames. Officials were able to lean on the power of GPS mapping to find the origin of the initial fire.

Gusty conditions in New Jersey at the time spread the flames across the parched vegetation in the Forked River Mountains Wilderness Area throughout the day Tuesday. Thousands of residents were forced to evacuate while a portion of the heavily travelled Garden State Parkway was closed for a brief time. Evacuees have since been allowed to return home.

As of the Thursday morning update, the Jones Road Wildfire was about 50% contained. The biggest concern at this time is the thick smoke coming from the blaze. Local officials are telling communities along the Jersey Shore to remain indoors as much as possible.

The smoke and haze were hovering over New York City by Thursday, prompting air quality alerts for millions in the area. The state's departments of Environmental Conservation and Health have triggered Air Quality Health Advisories for New York City, Westchester County, Rockland County, and Long Island.

The northerly winds whipping around on Wednesday sent the smoke to the south and over Atlantic City and the rest of the Jersey Shore. However, these winds changed direction by Thursday, pushing the smoke in the direction of New York City.

The silver lining for Thursday's forecast is that lighter winds will limit the smoke circulation. However, vulnerable populations should take precautions until the air quality alerts have expired. Forecasters are also warning that the winds could pick up again late Thursday and into Friday, potentially causing the fire to spread again.

Acting New Jersey Gov. Tahesha Way issued a state of emergency for the state, freeing up state resources to get the fire under control and provide aid.

What the Forecast Says About the Chance of Rain in the Northeast

Rain is in the forecast for the Northeast in the days ahead, however, it may not be sufficient to completely erase the drought conditions and wildfire threat for all areas. The rain is predicted to fire up beginning late Friday and linger well into Saturday.

Unfortunately for fire crews, the mercury is also expected to increase by the weekend. Highs are likely to hover in the 70s for most of New Jersey with temperatures hitting the 80s to the south.

Higher humidity levels will lend a helping hand to fire crews during the first half of the weekend. Even in areas that do not see the soaking rainfall, the increase in humidity will serve to keep the fuel that the fire is feeding on less dry. Widespread rainfall amounts between 0.50 of an inch to 1.50 inches are in the forecast for a zone from upstate New York and over to northern and central portions of New England.

Looking at a few specific forecasts, Atlantic City is predicted to see the rain begin overnight Friday. Saturday is going to be the soggiest day of the week for the vacation hotspot. Thunderstorms may also be a possibility. Winds will clock in at speeds of 15 to 25 mph from the south-southwest. The forecast is calling for a high of about 68 degrees and lows that slip into the upper 40s overnight.

New York City will also see the chances of rain increase after the sun goes down on Friday. Saturday will bring a renewed threat of rain and thunderstorms to the large metro area. The Big Apple is expecting a high of about 73 degrees on Saturday with lows that dip to about the 50-degree mark.

Looking ahead to the back half of the weekend, winds are expected to kick up again coming in behind the rain on Saturday night. Dropping temperatures on Sunday will be negated by the onset of gustier conditions and drier air. This will translate to an elevated fire risk when compared to earlier in the weekend.

For example, despite plentiful sunshine on Sunday, Atlantic City will see the mercury fall by about 5 degrees from Saturday's high. The change will be more noticeable in New York City, falling from the low to mid 70s on Saturday to readings that top out at about 61 degrees to close out the weekend.

The start of the new work week will bring lighter winds paired with plentiful sunshine and dry air for New Jersey. The Garden State is forecast to see highs bounce around between the mid 60s and into the low 70s.

More warmth is on tap for Tuesday in New Jersey before another storm system tracks into the region by the evening and overnight hours. Shower activity is predicted to be sporadic with some areas missing out on the moisture completely.

The hit-and-miss nature of the upcoming rain event is a continuation of what has been happening in April across New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, the southeastern corner of New York state, and southern New England. Some of the driest communities have only recorded 25% - 50% of the historical average of rainfall.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, some locations in the Northeast are under the designation of abnormally dry conditions. The hardest-hit areas have been put under the categorization of moderate to severe drought.

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