Florida Forecast to See More Tropical Weather by Next Week

Forecasters are putting Florida on alert once again as an evolving tropical feature shows signs of heading in that direction. This is all happening as Hurricane Kirk tracks toward Europe. Here is a look at what is keeping the National Hurricane Center (NHC) busy these days.

Conditions Ripe for Tropical Development in the Gulf of Mexico

Although forecasters have not yet determined how strong the latest tropical event will end up becoming before landfall, they are more certain that Florida will take the brunt of the impacts. A cluster of rain showers and thunderstorms is coming together in the zone stretching from the western Caribbean Sea and over to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

The activity has not yet formed an organized center. However, forecasters are becoming more certain that a feature will develop by the end of the weekend and move toward the northeast and across the state of Florida next week.

Meteorologists said that the feature will be spurred on by two different areas of energy. One energy piece is coming from the east from the Caribbean while the second zone is spinning off a tropical depression that is currently located in the eastern Pacific near Mexico. The merger of these two pieces of energy will fuel the development of the latest tropical event in the Gulf.

The speed of the new weather maker will determine how much it intensifies. A feature that forms and moves slowly will be more likely to develop into a tropical storm or even a hurricane.

One thing that is certain is that the sea surface temperatures in this part of the Atlantic are warm enough to support tropical development. Temperatures in the path of the storm are hovering in the mid 80s, well over the recognized minimum threshold in the upper 70s.

In addition, wind shear is expected to remain low throughout this corner of the Gulf of Mexico. However, an area of wind shear in the northern part of the Gulf will serve as a blocking mechanism to keep tropical weather from shifting into Texas. This wind shear will be aided by an area of high pressure set up over the south-central U.S. to keep any potential storm from also creeping into the southern Appalachians, an area hit hard by Hurricane Helene last week.

Potential Impacts to Note

Even if this area of concern does not take on formal tropical characteristics, it will still produce significant rainfall for central and southern Florida next week. In the absence of a condensed hurricane, this rain is predicted to fall over several days rather than a lot at one time.

Floridians should be prepared for the threat of flooding beginning this weekend and lasting through next week. The highest amount of rain will fall in a zone from Interstate 4 and to the south into the Florida Keys. Up to a foot of rain could fall in major metropolitan areas such as Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers, Naples, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale.

Should the tropical system develop tropical elements, the weather maker would also usher in high winds and storm surge. Be sure to keep tabs on this system if you live anywhere in the state of Florida.

Europe on Guard for Potential Impacts of Hurricane Kirk

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, several other tropical weather features are churning through the waters. Hurricane Kirk is now a major Category 3 storm as defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The storm went through the process of rapid intensification on Wednesday, taking it from a Category 1 storm with winds of 80 mph to a Category 3 event with winds reaching speeds of 120 mph.

Kirk is predicted to reach the status of a Category 4 hurricane storm with winds up to 156 mph shortly. There is an outside chance that Kirk sneaks into the status of a Category 5 monster.

At this point, Kirk is only a nuisance for shipping interests in the region. However, the feature is forecast to deliver tropical wind and rainstorm impacts to parts of the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and western Europe by the middle of next week.

Because of Kirk's large size, it is sending large swells outward and to the northeast-facing coastline of the Caribbean. These swells are also expected to the Atlantic Seaboard this weekend, raising the risk of strong rip currents and dangerous surf conditions. The western shores of Europe will also see this wave action build beginning this weekend.

In addition to Kirk, a new system took on a name Wednesday when Tropical Storm Leslie formed. The NHC predicts that this feature will likely become the next hurricane to roam the Atlantic. This feature is predicted to move farther to the west than Kirk's path but the Caribbean will still likely dodge the impacts.

Lastly, another feature located farther west than Leslie could come to fruition and impact Bermuda with persistent rain and thunderstorms by the end of this week. Bermuda may also end up in the crosshairs of the tropical weather activity forecast to hit Florida.

The next names up for Atlantic basin this year are Milton and Nadine.

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