What to Know About the Chances of February Tornadoes

It may seem premature to begin to talk about tornadoes as the month of February kicks off, however, this is a time of the year when twisters can pop up in the South and beyond. While the month does not feature a high amount of tornadic activity, this is also not the time to get complacent. Here is what you need to know about what February typically brings for tornadoes.

February Tornadoes Most Common in the South

It is not surprising to learn that tornadoes are the most common in February across the southern U.S. This is because this region tends to display weather patterns that feature the clash of warm and cool air, supporting the development of severe weather that goes on to generate tornadoes.

The proximity to the Gulf of Mexico supports the flow of warm and moist air up into the region. This influx of moisture-rich air then clashes with the colder winter air to the north. While the most prolific February tornado outbreaks have happened in the Deep South, it is also not unusual for this type of weather to form to the east in the Carolinas and up through the Ohio Valley. Meteorologists warn that twisters can also pop up in the Midwest during the second month of the year.

Severe weather that erupts in the winter months is also a stronger likelihood when a powerful jet stream disturbance moves through the southern U.S., the Ohio Valley, or the eastern part of the country. Should cold air circulating near the surface be minimal, the energy is in place to generate tornadoes.

All of that said, February is usually in the bottom quarter of months for tornadic development in the U.S. The month has averaged 42 tornadoes every year since 2004.

It is important to note that averages are simply that. It is not unusual to see a February with little to no activity while some months will see numbers hit the triple digits.

February 2024 Odd Tornado Outbreak

You do not have to go back far to find the last time that February produced an unusual rash of tornadoes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) confirmed 45 tornadoes in the U.S. in February of 2024. While this number was right on the average, what made the month strange was that the bulk of these twisters spun up in the Midwest rather than the South.

For instance, Wisconsin recorded its first February tornado since it achieved statehood and began tracking such activity. One of the twisters was rated a strong EF2, traveling on the ground for at least 26 miles.

The warmer than average temperatures last February in the Midwest helped to fuel the atypical tornadic activity. In total, 23 tornadoes were confirmed in a zone from northern Illinois and over into Lower Michigan, Ohio, and New York state on February 27 and 28. Included in this number was only the second February tornado on the record books in southeastern Michigan.

Other Notable February Tornado Outbreaks

One of the most prolific tornadic outbreaks happened on February 5 and 6, 2008. Known as the Super Tuesday outbreak because of its timing on the presidential primaries, this weather event saw 86 confirmed twisters across 10 states. At least 57 deaths were blamed on this outbreak. Five of the twisters ended up with a rating of EF4, speaking to the magnitude of the power of this event. One of the tornadoes was on the ground for 122 miles in Arkansas, the longest path in recorded history for this state.

There were 121 fatalities attributed to a tornado outbreak on February 21 and 22, 1971. This outbreak stretched from Texas to North Carolina, putting millions in the path of danger. The deadliest twister was an F4 event that struck near Oxford, Mississippi, killing 58 and injuring over 800 more people.

Going farther back in history, an outbreak on February 19 and 20, 1884 killed at least 182 people in the Southeast. Keep in mind that this was before reliable records were kept, meaning that the death could have actually been much higher.

Why Winter Tornadoes Are Particularly Dangerous

There are a number of reasons that point to why winter tornadoes are particularly dangerous. Storm cells that form during the winter months tend to move at a faster clip than the garden variety spring and summer storms. This is because steering winds circulating higher in the atmosphere are generally stronger.

As a result, it is vital to take shelter immediately when you receive an alert. The faster-moving nature of these storms means that you may not have as much time to seek shelter.

Winter tornadoes are also more likely to be wrapped in rain as they come together in long squall lines. This rain can often obscure the funnel, making it more difficult to detect. Likewise, the shorter days during the winter mean that there is a higher chance that tornadoes will form under the cover of darkness. This also makes them more challenging to spot, resulting in shorter warning times.

Additionally, people may be caught sleeping when the tornado strikes. You can help to mitigate this threat by ensuring that your smartphone weather alerts are enabled. Having a plan in place to seek shelter will also help to get you to safety if you are woken up in the middle of the night.

Lastly, the fast nature of these winter storms also increases the threat of straight-line winds. These winds are more likely to cause substantial damage even in the absence of a tornado touchdown.

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