What to Expect in the Winter Months for Severe Weather

Last week's severe weather outbreak across the central U.S. was a stark reminder that fall and winter can also support the development of thunderstorms. While most people associate severe weather with the spring and summer months, it is not uncommon for storms to pop up from time to time during the colder months as well. Here is a look at what you can expect heading into the back end of the year when it comes to potential severe weather impacts.

Diving Into the Data

The data clearly demonstrates that the spring and the early summer seasons typically bring the greatest risk of thunderstorms and tornadic activity. Conversely, fall and winter are connected to cooler temperatures, snow and ice, and generally anything but the warm and humid air that supports severe weather.

You may be surprised to learn that the data also shows that the fall and winter produce dozens of tornadoes each year. Data going back for two decades show that these two seasons have seen at least 42 tornadoes in each year studied.

Fall is similar to the spring in that the clash of competing weather patterns lays the groundwork for thunderstorm production. While the late spring and early summer see the greatest amount of tornadic activity, the risk does not fall to zero when the atmosphere stabilizes.

You are most likely to see a tornado outbreak when the warm and moisture-rich air that originates in the Gulf of Mexico comes up and clashes with the powerful cold fronts and jet stream winds that move across the nation during the fall and winter. This is similar to what happens during the spring when the weather is more chaotic. The battle between two different weather patterns can lead to severe storms that generate large hail, frequent lightning strikes, high winds, torrential rain, and tornadoes.

Most tornadoes that form during the month of October tend to remain farther to the south. However, it is not out of the realm of possibility to have twisters creep up into the Upper Midwest and the Northeast.

You do not have to look far back to find the last big tornado outbreak in October. A slew of twisters popped up in six states in the South on October 20 and 21, 2019. One of these tornadoes was an EF3 event that hit on the northern side of the Dallas metro area. Farther north, Pennsylvania also experienced a significant tornadic event in October of 2018. An EF4 tornado roared to life in Wayne, Nebraska in October 2013.

What to Expect in November