What Part of the U.S. is Most Likely to See Lingering Tropical Concerns

The calendar may be reading November but that does not mean that the tropical weather season is over. The next potential tropical threat is forecast to develop as the month of November kicks off.

Caribbean Showing Signs of Potential Tropical Development

The Atlantic basin has been a place of calm and quiet since the demise of Oscar. The tides are turning in the days ahead as the tropics come alive. The tropical development is forecast to take root in the Caribbean Sea, a common place for activity during the last month of the official Atlantic hurricane season.

The last few days have seen a confluence of several supportive elements needed for tropical formation. For instance, sea surface temperatures have been running particularly high, especially when compared to the averages for this time of the year when significant cooling tends to begin. There has also been an excess of moisture, another ingredient needed for tropical storms to feed on and grow.

What has been holding back the formation of a named feature? Experts say that high wind shear levels have worked to mitigate tropical activity over the past week. Wind shear creates a hostile environment for rain showers and storms, preventing them from going on to form tropical features.

However, the long-range forecast is indicating that this prohibitive wind shear will decrease by early next week, paving the way for more tropical activity to roam the basin. Meteorologists believe that the current wind shear will move to the north and out of the Caribbean. This movement will leave low amounts of wind shear along with the prevailing moisture and warm ocean water temperatures.

The result will be a good chance of tropical development. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently predicting a medium chance of development across this part of the Caribbean. The area of low pressure will be monitored to see if it takes on defined areas of thunderstorm activity, the first signal that a tropical depression or storm could develop.

Any possible tropical development would not occur until this weekend or early next week at the earliest. The next Atlantic storm name is Patty.

Even if any developing feature does not take on official tropical characteristics, many of the islands of the Caribbean will be in the crosshairs for heavy rain, rough surf, and windy conditions.

In addition, forecasters are keeping an eye on another area of possible development located to the northeast of Hispaniola. While it is still early, it looks as if this zone will have enough wind shear in place to hinder formation.