Variety of Moisture Impacts Coming Along with Major Storm System

A midweek storm is looming for the central and eastern portions of the country, ushering in the threat of destructive thunderstorms for areas on the southern flank of the system and ice to the northern edge. Here is what you need to know about the first major storm event of February east of the Rockies.

Multi-faceted Midweek Storm Targeting Central and Eastern U.S.

It has been a relatively calm start to the month of February for the eastern two-thirds of the country. That is going to change when a large storm system is forecast to fire up by the middle of the week. The weather maker will be fueled by the clash of cold Arctic air to the north and warm and moisture-rich air to the south. The storm will dump a mix of rain, snow, and ice as it moves to the east.

Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his warm burrow on Sunday to see his shadow, signaling six more weeks of winter. The forecast for the first half of February is in line with Phil's predictions for cold temperatures and stormy conditions on the horizon for the near term.

The midweek storm will begin to form late Tuesday and into Wednesday across the central U.S. Record-challenging warm temperatures will filter in from the south and into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys to support the development of thunderstorms on Wednesday. Forecasters are warning that some of these storms may turn severe at times.

The line of storms will focus on the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday afternoon. For instance, cities such as St. Louis are forecast to see a soggy day on Wednesday with persistent rain showers. There will be little swings in the temperatures in the Arch City with readings holding steady in the low to mid 40s for both highs and lows.

The chance of thunderstorm activity will be a constant presence in Nashville beginning Wednesday afternoon and lingering through Thursday. The metro area is forecast to see the greatest risk of storms on Thursday afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s on Wednesday will inch up to about the 70-degree mark on Thursday. Winds will pick up slightly overnight Wednesday in Nashville, topping out at speeds of 10 to 15 mph.

The storm cells will continue in an easterly direction and reach the Ohio Valley by the evening and overnight hours. Potential impacts during this time period include small hail and winds that hit speeds of over 50 mph.

Widespread storms are also expected in a zone to the south and east by Thursday. However, forecasters are not anticipating that these storms will pack as big of a punch as the preceding activity.

Wintry Mix in the Forecast for the Northern Flank of the System

Colder temperatures on the northern flank of the system will promote the development of a wintry mix of precipitation. There is the possibility that a major ice storm will grip parts of the Midwest and the Great Lakes starting on Wednesday.

Ice amounting to a quarter of an inch or more is a potential late Wednesday along interstates 80 and 94 in parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The moisture will likely begin as freezing rain.

Heading into Thursday, the threat of ice will move into the mid-Atlantic, portions of the Appalachians, and up into the Northeast. The ice accumulation presents the risk of tree and power line damage.

The worst of the ice is forecast for an area expanding from the central Appalachians and to the north through Pennsylvania and into the southern part of New York state. Up to a half of an inch of ice buildup is a good possibility in the primary impact zone.

Cities such as Scranton, Pennsylvania will be in the bullseye of the freezing rain and ice. This community is forecast to see snowfall of about an inch overnight Wednesday with lows of about 24 degrees. The mercury will climb into the low 40s on Thursday, resulting in the transition of snow to freezing rain. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph in Scranton.

The flakes will also begin to fly overnight to the north in Binghamton, New York with about an inch of snow in the forecast under the cover of darkness. This area will see the wintry mix continue into Thursday with snow and ice accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. The Thursday forecast in Binghamton also includes winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph with highs of about 40 degrees.

Lesser ice accumulation is expected in a larger zone expanding as far east as the Interstate 95 corridor from Boston and down through New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. To the north, the ice could reach as far as Toronto, Canada.

The northern edge of the busy Interstate 95 corridor will see the greatest risk of disruptive wintry precipitation. For instance, Boston is forecast to see snow develop on Thursday morning, potentially turning to ice in the latter part of the day. You can expect 1 to 3 inches of snow and ice throughout the day Thursday pairing with winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 30s throughout the day and night in Boston.

Heading to the south, New York City is expecting rain and snow early in the day on Thursday changing to all rain in the afternoon hours as the temperatures reach the low 40s for a high. The temperatures will hold at this level even after the sun goes down in the Big Apple.

Even warmer temperatures to the south in Washington, D.C. will keep the precipitation falling as rain during this time. The nation's capital is forecast to see a high of about 51 degrees on Thursday with rainfall accumulations of about a quarter of an inch. Beware that chillier temperatures coming in behind this storm will put the chance of snow back in the forecast for Washington, D.C. by Saturday.

Even a small amount of ice can create hazardous conditions on the roads. Bridges and overpasses are particularly vulnerable to ice development in a fast amount of time. While the precise timing is still uncertain, the slippery roads could be at their worst during the Thursday morning commute. This will be an issue to keep tabs on in the days ahead.

The risks will not be over after the midweek storm moves offshore. The forecast is calling for cold temperatures and gusty winds to come in on the backside of the system on Thursday and Friday. Stay tuned as this forecast becomes more certain.

February Storm Train to Continues

This week's wild weather could be a harbinger of things to come for the first few weeks of February. The long-range forecast is predicting that two more storms could be looming. The next system is forecast to hit on Friday and linger through the weekend, impacting much of the same general area of the midweek storm.

Yet another storm is expected starting early next week. Although it is still early, it looks as if this system may have more moisture to work with when compared to the two preceding storms.

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