Tropics Showing Multiple Signs of Development as September Begins

The first day of September marks more than just the start to the meteorological fall. The day also represents the beginning of the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. And just on time, forecasters are warning that tropical activity is beginning to pick up across the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Here is a peek at what is happening in the tropics.

Multiple Areas of Concern in the Tropics

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are keeping a close eye on an area of rain showers and thunderstorms drifting across the central Atlantic. The feature is expected to move into the Caribbean Sea next week where it will find exceptionally warm ocean waters to feed on. In addition to this zone of potential development, there are other areas of concern coming together in the Gulf of Mexico and over in the eastern Atlantic basin.

The first zone likely to take on tropical characteristics is located in the south-central portions of the Atlantic, featuring several groups of showers and thunderstorms that stretch out for nearly 1,000 miles. Wind shear is low in this part of the Atlantic, meaning that there will be little in the way to stop this feature from taking hold and growing. Low levels of wind shear are most likely to support tropical development.

There is also a lessening of the dry and dusty air that moves over from the Sahara Desert. This dry air mass breaks up the moisture levels in tropical weather features, meaning a lack of it will naturally translate to higher odds of development.

The NHC will declare this feature a tropical depression if and when it forms a complete center of circulation boasting maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Even if this feature does not develop a defined center of circulation, it will still pack enough moisture to deliver heavy rain and gusty storms across the Leeward and Windward islands that are located in the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea.

Meteorologists are predicting that the heaviest rain will fall over the Windward Islands. This rain will be significant enough to present concerns of flash flooding through the early part of the week. Some areas of the Windward are still grappling with the destruction left behind by Hurricane Beryl in July.

Beryl is distinguished as being the strongest hurricane to form during the month of July. The Category 5 storm hit peak winds of 165 mph as it whipped through the Caribbean on its way to the U.S.

The feature currently located in the south-central Atlantic will likely grow and strengthen when it reaches the Caribbean next week. Should this storm take on tropical storm characteristics, it will take on the name Francine.

The exact track of any tropical storm or hurricane to form over the next week is still unclear. There is a chance that the steering breezes in place could send the weather maker to the west and toward Central America or southeastern Mexico by the second week of September. Conversely, it is also possible that the breezes could guide the feature toward the U.S. if it gets pulled into the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters also warn that more than one storm system could come out of this large area of showers and thunderstorms. This could mean a double or triple threat in the coming days and weeks.