Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast to Become a Hurricane

As predicted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the latest developing feature in the Caribbean formally became a tropical storm on Monday. Tropical Storm Rafael is now forecast to become a hurricane and threaten parts of the U.S. as early as this weekend. Here is a look at the expected growth and trajectory of this storm in the days ahead.

Rafael is Forecast to Threaten the U.S.

Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to become a hurricane this week before moving into the Gulf of Mexico and setting its sights on the U.S. The feature was designated as a tropical rainstorm on Saturday as it continued to grow and intensify. The latest forecast models indicate that Rafael will move on a northwesterly track, sending it near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica early in the week. Cuba will be in the crosshairs by the middle of the week as the feature picks up strength by feeding on the exceptionally warm ocean waters in this part of the Atlantic basin.

Rafael will make a turn to the north and gain wind intensity as it heads over Jamaica and Cuba. Meteorologists believe that it is likely that Rafael will be either a Category 1 or 2 storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday morning in the western part of Cuba. Likely impacts of Rafael in the Caribbean include high winds, dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides.

Rafael is forecast to remain under the categorization of a Category 1 or 2 storm before it loses some if its wind speeds as it moves closer to the U.S. central Gulf Coast over the weekend. Cooler ocean water temperatures and an increasing amount of wind shear will work to blunt the impact of Rafael as it approaches the U.S. coastline.