Tropical Storm Debby Heading Toward Florida Gulf Coast

As expected, the tropical wave that came together in the eastern Atlantic this week is now an official tropical storm heading toward Florida. Here is the latest on the expected degree of impacts and general landfall predictions for Tropical Storm Debby.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Parts of Florida

Portions of Florida are now under a hurricane warning as Tropical Storm Debby roared to life on Saturday in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As of the late Saturday update, Tropical Storm Debby was spinning about 100 miles to the west-southwest of Key West sporting maximum wind speeds of 40 mph. The feature is moving to the northwest at a speed of 14 mph.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) believes that Debby will continue to intensify as it feeds on the exceptionally warm waters off the Florida Gulf Coast on Sunday. There is a good chance that Debby could even strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall. The current models indicate that Debby will most likely make landfall overnight Sunday and into Monday in northern Florida.

Hurricane warnings were issued for the Big Bend region of Florida between the Ocholckonee River and the Suwannee River. Tropical storm warnings were also put into effect for the rest of the Sunshine State's Gulf Coast, including the major metropolitan areas of Tampa, Fort Myers, Sarasota, Naples, and Cape Coral. Evacuation orders are now in effect for some of the low-lying portions of the Florida coastline.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Thursday evening, freeing up state resources to prepare for the storm's arrival. A state of emergency was also declared on Saturday for neighboring state Georgia.

Future Track of Debby

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico are measuring in the mid to upper 80s, well over the benchmark minimum readings in the upper 70s to support tropical weather development. Additionally, little to no wind shear in this part of the Gulf will further fuel Debby as it churns on Sunday. This is why forecasters warn that Debby could easily reach the status of a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall.

How much intensity Debby gains prior to coming on shore will depend on how long it spends over the warm ocean waters. The storm is expected to remain off shore throughout the day Sunday before making its approach to the peninsula after the sun goes down.

Hurricane experts warn that there is an outside chance that Debby could find the conditions that it needs to go through the process of rapid intensification. This process is defined as wind speed increases of 35 mph or greater in a period of 24 hours or less. Last month's Hurricane Beryl also went through a period of rapid intensification, taking it to a Category 5 monster in a short amount of time.

The threat of rapid intensification is one of the reasons why residents in the potential path should not take Debby lightly just because it is still a tropical storm. All of the conditions are present in the Gulf for Debby to strengthen at a fast clip in the coming hours.

The primary impacts of Debby will be heavy rain and high winds. The eastern flank of the storm will see the greatest threat of tornadic activity. Coastal areas will also want to be cognizant of the risk of waterspouts.

The rough surf conditions are already building over the coastline of the Florida Gulf Coast. These dangerous seas will also start to impact the coastal regions of Georgia and up into the Carolinas as the storm moves in this direction.

The moisture associated with Debby will be enough to present serious flooding concerns, particularly in urban and low-lying areas. Rainfall amounts could hit several inches per hour when the storm moves on shore.

As with any tropical weather event, storm surge will also be a chief concern. Forecasters are predicting a surge of about 6 to 10 feet with Apalachee Bay expected to see the highest surge levels. The areas to the south of the center of Debby will be in the primary danger zone outside of the bays.

What Will Happen to Debby After it Moves Through Florida?

Debby will not likely be done wreaking havoc in the U.S. after it moves through Florida. The models demonstrate that Debby will re-emerge out in the Atlantic Ocean, possibly coming to life a second time after weakening considerably throughout the day Monday.

The steering breezes that are currently guiding Debby are forecast to slow down early in the week, meaning that Debby could stall out as it moves along the coast of the Carolinas. A tropical weather maker that slows down or stalls is a much larger concern for flooding.

Coastal communities along the southeastern U.S. coastline should be prepared for significant flooding. This includes the popular summer tourist destinations of Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. Storm surge of 6 to 10 feet is forecast in this zone.

Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia are expected to see the rain, wind, and rough surf conditions increase on Monday and into Tuesday. Beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will also present at this time.

While it is still too early to pinpoint with certainty, forecasters warn that Debby could once again become a hurricane if it spends a long enough amount of time spinning over the warm waters in the Atlantic. Another storm moving into the Northeast from the Midwest could interact with what is left of Debby by the middle of the week, amplifying the moisture amounts up and down the East Coast.

Stay tuned as Debby's future track and severity of impacts become more clear in the hours ahead.

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