Tropical Rainstorm Churning in Caribbean Heading to Florida Next

A tropical rainstorm that is currently spinning around the Caribbean is forecast to impact Florida this weekend. Will it intensify further and when will the Sunshine State begin to feel its presence? Read on for all of the details.

Tropical Rainstorm Moving Through the Caribbean

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are keeping an eye on a developing situation in the tropics that is on a course to impact Florida during the first weekend of August. There is a chance that this feature could strengthen as it nears the Florida coastline, potentially developing into a named storm. The track of the feature will determine how much strength it gains as it moves through the Caribbean.

The next name up on the list for the Atlantic hurricane season is Debby. Meteorologists have been tracking this feature since early in the week when it began to dump significant moisture across the northern islands in the Caribbean. As of midday Thursday, the tropical rainstorm was located near the island of Hispaniola. The feature was starting to generate a more defined center of circulation off the northern coast of this large island.

While it is showing signs of organization at this time, it is still a ways off from taking on characteristics of a depression or named storm. For example, the rainstorm is still missing winds of the magnitude of a named feature.

How quickly the rainstorm develops a defined center will determine its future track and ability to keep strengthening. Should the feature remain close to Hispaniola and Cuba, its impacts will be muted due to the mitigation impacts of the mountainous terrain that will break it up. Conversely, the feature will pick up steam should the center move away from these large islands and out into the warm ocean waters.

While its future is uncertain, the tropical rainstorm will continue to bring locally heavy rain and the potential of flash flooding and mudslides to the Caribbean in the near term. Rough surf conditions and dangerous seas are likely in the northern Caribbean, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos as the system moves to the west.

The highest chance of intensification will happen when the storm moves away from the large island of Cuba. This is when it is most likely to take on the characteristics of a tropical depression or storm.

The speed at which the storm intensifies will also influence its future track. A storm that develops more quickly will likely move farther to the north and up the eastern edge of the state of Florida. This track could also keep it just offshore the coastline in the Atlantic. However, if it does not pick up strength as quickly, it is more likely to move toward the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of where the weather maker heads, it will find exceptionally warm ocean waters that will aid in its growth. In addition, this part of the basin is forecast to see low amounts of wind shear, providing another boost to the intensification process.