Southern U.S. Braces for Heavy Rain and Severe Thunderstorms

While the northern half of the U.S. grapples with a variety of winter weather impacts, much of the South will be dealing with heavy rain and severe thunderstorms. Here is what forecasters are predicting in the southern tier of the U.S. in the days ahead.

Storm Train Targets Southern U.S. with Heavy Rain

The southern U.S. will be under the gun for flash flooding this week as a parade of winter storms continues to track through a good portion of the country. The unseasonably warm temperatures will fuel the development of moisture-rich storms for the south-central U.S. and over into the Southeast.

In addition to the threat of flooding, these storm cells will raise the risk of damaging thunderstorms. Unfortunately, the storms are expected to train over the same zone that is still recovering from the impacts of last year's Hurricane Helene.

How much rain should you expect? The long-range forecast is predicting the possibility of 5 to 10 inches of rain through next Monday. The primary zone of impact will be across the lower portions of the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys as well as the southern Appalachians and the Piedmont. The first two storms in the parade this week will be responsible for about 2 to 6 inches of this total expected accumulation through Thursday.

Forecasters are warning that flash flooding will be a concern in poor drainage and low-lying areas. Urban flooding could stymie travel across major metro areas such as Houston, New Orleans, Nashville, Charlotte, and Atlanta.

There will be noticeable breaks between each separate storm system. However, the cumulative effect of each event will raise the threat of runoff into small streams that will amplify the flooding concerns as the week progresses.

Once again, the area ravaged by Hurricane Helene in late September of 2024 will be the most vulnerable to the flooding impacts. This is largely because so much of the infrastructure in this area is still damaged.

Asheville, North Carolina took the brunt of Helene's wrath. The forecast for this part of western North Carolina this week is calling for rain to develop on Tuesday afternoon and persist through Wednesday. You can expect rainfall accumulations to hit nearly 2 inches during this time period. It will be a chilly day with highs that hover around the 40-degree mark. Overnight readings will slip just a few degrees lower than the daytime highs, ensuring that the precipitation does not transition to snow.

Where to Expect Severe Thunderstorms

Not all the weather makers will carry the risk of severe weather. The first significant threat will come on Tuesday in an area from the upper Texas coast and over into central Alabama. This threat will linger through the day and into the overnight hours. Potential dangers include flash flooding and localized wind gusts that hover between 50 and 60 mph.

Cities such as Houston will be in the bullseye of these impacts. After seeing just light rain on Monday, the metro area should prepare for the persistent thunderstorms to ignite on Tuesday. Houston is bracing for 1 to 2 inches of rain during the day Tuesday, with another inch of rainfall likely overnight and into Wednesday. Highs will top out in the low 70s before falling into the mid 60s overnight. Tuesday's forecast is calling for winds out of the south at 10 to 20 mph in Houston.

The chance of thunderstorms associated with this first system will linger into Wednesday morning in this part of the Lone Star State. Much cooler temperatures will push in behind this storm with Wednesday's overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s in Houston. Once again, some of these storm cells will pack gusty winds at times.

The second system will fire up across the Plains and the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. The threat of severe weather will cover the same general areas as Tuesday's storms with just a slight shift to reach northeastern Texas and over into Louisiana, Mississippi, and the western and central portions of Alabama.

Jackson, Mississippi is forecast to see the rain pick up overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with about an inch of accumulation a good possibility. Wednesday's weather pattern will bring thunderstorms with heavy rainfall amounting to about an inch. It will be a breezy day in the capital city with winds out of the south-southwest at 10 to 15 mph. The mercury will reach the mid-60s before tumbling to about 44 degrees overnight.

Although Birmingham, Alabama will see a soggy Tuesday with rainfall of over an inch in the forecast, the city in the northern part of the state will see the chance of severe weather hold off until Wednesday. At this point, residents should expect widespread thunderstorms with the potential of heavy rainfall. The metro area is predicted to see a high of 62 degrees pairing with overnight readings in the low 40s. Thunderstorms will persist into the evening hours in Birmingham.

Winds are likely to notch slightly higher speeds with this mid-week event. Some of the gusts could hit the 75 mph mark during the peak of the activity, a speed equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane.

Meteorologists are also cautioning that these storms could produce isolated tornadic activity. While this is not expected to be a widespread area of concern, you cannot rule out the chance of a twister or two on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the latest models demonstrate that yet another storm will push through the eastern half of the country and bring rain and severe weather to the South. This is part of the same storm that is expected to unleash heavy rain for California this week. Once it reaches the south, this system is likely to be more capable of generating tornadoes than its predecessors. We will continue to update this situation as more concrete details become available.

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