Rocky End to Weekend in the South as Storms Fire Up

It has only been one week since a rash of severe weather swept through the southern part of the U.S., setting off a series of deadly tornadoes across the Gulf Coast. While the calendar is reading the depth of winter, the weather feels more like spring in this part of the nation. Unfortunately for those residents still cleaning up from last weekend's storm event, more severe weather is on the way for the region. Here is a more detailed look at the predicted location and timing of the latest weather maker.

Another Weekend of Severe Weather Looming for the Southern U.S.

At least four people died at the hands of severe weather last weekend with more storms on the way. Last weekend's activity generated over 80 tornadoes and more than 150 damaging wind reports.

The same storm system that is going to roar through the Plains and the Ohio Valley bringing snow and ice will also generate the threat of severe storms in areas farther to the south. The winter storm will first eject out of the Rockies late Saturday, moving across the Plains states and into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Sunday.

Forecasters are warning that the clash of the Arctic air circulating within the winter storm and moist and warm air filtering up from the Gulf of Mexico will fuel the expected outbreak of severe weather in the South. When and where can you expect the severe weather to fire up? The latest models indicate that the first storms will ignite across eastern Texas during the middle of the day Sunday, eventually tracking into Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama as the evening and overnight progresses.

Temperatures are forecast to reach the 70s along the Gulf Coast, well above the historical average for the beginning of January. This unseasonably warm weather will lay the groundwork for storms to develop.

The most potent storms are likely to spring up between Interstate 10 and Interstate 20. However, some storms may sneak up as far north as Little Rock and as far south and to the east as the Florida Panhandle beaches.

Just when the line of storms dissipates across the South, an influx of significantly colder air will infiltrate the region. This could spell trouble if the storms trigger widespread power outages.

The mercury is forecast to dive below the freezing mark on Sunday night in a zone from Texas to Alabama. This cold weather pattern will have some staying power, predicted to stick around for a few days. Meteorologists are also warning that more blasts of Arctic air will likely make it to the South in the weeks ahead.

Specific City Forecasts

Now let's take a look at a few metropolitan area forecasts. Dallas will be on the northern fringe of this severe weather threat. The metroplex will be at risk of isolated thunderstorms on Sunday morning with sunnier conditions expected later in the afternoon. A morning high of 64 degrees will dip into the mid 30s quickly as the cold front pushes through. The arrival of the front will also send winds to speeds of 20 to 30 mph with some gusts over 40 mph a good possibility. Overnight lows will fall all of the way into the low 20s overnight Sunday and into Monday while Monday's high will top out at the 40-degree mark. It will remain breezy on Monday with winds out of the north-northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

The storms will be more widespread to the south in places such as Lake Charles, Louisiana. This city is looking at a messy day on Sunday with regular thunderstorms pairing with winds out of the south-southwest at 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will reach a high of about 76 degrees before sliding to 30 degrees overnight. Monday will dawn with the noticeably colder temperatures as the high struggles to break out of the mid 40s despite the sunny skies.

Vicksburg, Mississippi will also be in the middle of the impact zone of this storm event. This part of the region is anticipating strong thunderstorms packing damaging winds, large hail, and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. The forecast is calling for winds out of the south at 15 to 25 mph along with a high of about 74 degrees. Like the rest of the region, the mercury will plummet quickly with an overnight low forecast to land in the mid 20s and a Monday high that only makes it into the upper 30s.

The stormy conditions will take longer to arrive in areas farther to the east. For instance, Mobile, Alabama will see a dry day Sunday with the storms not expected to reach the metro area until the evening and overnight hours. Highs will top out at about 70 degrees on Sunday before falling into the low 40s overnight. Monday's forecast is calling for sunny skies but temperatures that only hit the mid 40s during the peak afternoon heating hours. It will also remain breezy with winds out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

While areas to the north will avoid the worst of the severe storms, heavy rain is likely in some places. Montgomery, Alabama is forecast to pick up rainfall accumulations of about a half of an inch overnight Sunday and into Monday. Winds will also pick up after the sun goes down, hitting speeds of about 20 mph. Montgomery will also experience a dramatic drop in the temperatures, shifting from a high of about 62 degrees on Sunday to readings that only see the mid 40s on Monday.

Severe Weather Continuation of Active 2024

The year 2025 is picking up where 2024 left off as it relates to severe weather. A new report out of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Friday demonstrates that 2024 will go down as the second-worst tornado season in history, besting 2011.

The outbreak late in December pushed the number of confirmed tornadoes up to 1,735. NOAA said that this number could increase as the late December outbreak reports are confirmed. The report notes that records date back to 1950. The 14-year mean figure for confirmed tornadoes is 1,390.

There were 53 fatalities blamed on tornadoes in 2024. While this number is high, it pales in comparison to the fatalities in 2011. This record-breaking year saw 553 lives lost to tornadoes.

The highest number of tornado reports came out of the traditional Tornado Alley, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Once again, Texas saw the most tornadic activity, clocking in with 169 twisters. The shear size of the Lone Star State often puts it on the top of the list. The tornadoes generated by Hurricane Beryl pushed Texas over the top again in 2024.

Both Nebraska and Iowa finished the year with 131 tornadoes, ending in a tie for the second place between these two states. Illinois came in at fourth place with 126 confirmed twisters while Missouri finished in fifth place with 105 confirmed tornadoes.

Florida also landed high on the list on the heels of the massive tornadic outbreak as a result of Hurricane Milton. This tropical weather event triggered a widespread rash of twisters across the state, resulting in more than twice the daily record for the peninsula.

Despite not ranking in the top 10 for states, New York experienced an atypically active tornado season with 32 reports. This compares to just 10 reports in the previous year.

Nevada, Vermont, and Maine were the only states that did not report any tornadic activity over the course of 2024.

Impact of Hurricanes on Tornadic Activity

Although the year 2024 got off to a slow start for tornadoes, unusually high activity in May sent the numbers soaring. However, climatologists are putting the blame for the bulk of the activity on hurricane events. Hurricane Beryl, Hurricane Debby, Hurricane Helene, and Hurricane Milton combined to produce 178 tornadoes.

There has only been two years since 1995 that saw more hurricane-generated twisters. The year 2004 produced 317 tornadoes at the hands of tropical weather while 2005 triggered 237 hurricane-driven twisters. Both of these years were highly active tropical weather seasons.

It is not surprising to learn that 2024 also saw an unusually high number of tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NWS). The agency issued 3,936 alerts, good enough for the highest amount since 2011. When it comes to individual state records, Florida, Oklahoma, Ohio, and New York all saw more tornado warnings in 2024 in the record books dating back to 2002. Oregon, Nevada, and Utah did not see any tornado warnings issued in 2024.

Only time will tell what the year 2025 will bring. The predicted severe weather outbreak

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