Rain Good News for Some, Worrisome for Others This Week

A fresh wave of rain is going to take aim at the central U.S. in the days ahead. The end result will be a mixed bag, varying from welcome relief for heightened wildfire conditions for some and the threat of flash flooding for others. Here is a look at what you can expect this week in the nation's heartland and to the east.

Unsettled Week of Weather to Persist for Much of Central U.S.

Rain showers and thunderstorms continue to be the major weather storyline this week for the central U.S. While the surge of moisture is good news for those communities in need of rain, other areas will be dealing with more chances of flash flooding thanks to the soggy weather pattern.

Forecasters are putting parts of the central U.S. on alert for flash flooding. River flooding is not expected to be a major concern this week, however, some of the storm cells could unleash flooding on roadways.

Most of the small streams and secondary rivers impacted by the heavy rain event in the first week of April have receded. The one trouble spot remains in the lower portion of the Mississippi River, an area where the moderate to major flooding issues persist. This is because it takes time for the water from the tributaries to flow into the large waterway and make its way downstream

For instance, the Mississippi River has already crested or will soon reach this stage along its shores bordering Tennessee, Arkansas, and northern Mississippi. Heading to the south into the delta, Baton Rouge is not expected to experience the crest until the end of April.

Another round of heavy rain over the Easter weekend in areas located to the west of the Mississippi River sent water in the secondary rivers over flood stage. This is most prevalent in the southern and central Plains region. The predicted secondary surge will continue to cycle down the mighty Mississippi in the weeks ahead.

The silver lining is that most of the forecast rain through the end of the week is not expected to be particularly organized. Forecasters believe that the weak atmospheric elements associated with this weather maker will mitigate the times of widespread heavy rain as the storms move from the Plains and over to the East Coast.

However, some localized areas across the central and southern Plains and up into the Ohio Valley could see times of torrential downpours. The influx of moisture coming up from the Gulf will amplify these rainfall amounts. Rain could be heavy enough to create the risk of urban and small stream flooding.

Rainfall amounts will likely not eclipse the 6-inch mark, even in the hardest-hit areas. The rain will also be spread out over a period of three to four days with some sun breaks scattered into the forecast. This pattern will help the rivers to be able to handle the incoming runoff more effectively than what happened during the early April rain event.

Drought Relief on the Way

The moisture will be a welcome sight for parts of the Plains that have been experiencing growing drought conditions. According to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor, a large swath of the High Plains has been under the designation of a moderate drought or higher. A corner of southwestern Texas is experiencing levels of exceptional drought, the highest categorization levied by the monitoring service.

The parched landscape has paired with the typically gusty conditions this time of the year to raise the threat of wildfires. The incoming rain will go a long way to saturate the dry ground and help to ease these concerns.

What About Areas Farther to the East?

The rainmaker is also forecast to bring meaningful precipitation to parts of the eastern U.S. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are on the horizon by the end of the week for parts of the Southeast and to the north. Some areas of extreme drought are present in a zone from Florida and up into New England.

Unfortunately for the dry state of Florida, there is not much rain in the short-term forecast. Humidity levels are predicted to remain low throughout the week while temperatures will climb to about 4 to 8 degrees above the historical average. Although new record highs are not expected, it will feel noticeably warmer. The intense late April sunshine will make it feel even hotter.

It has already been a dry start to the month for the Sunshine State. A large swath of the peninsula has been dealing with rainfall amounts trending below average. For instance, Orlando generally picks up about 2.5 inches of rain for the month of April. The Magic City has notched less than 0.40 of an inch thus far.

The U.S. Drought Monitor details that the state is experiencing abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions. The pairing of the dry air, low humidity levels, and lack of rain has already increased the threat of wildfires.

Wednesday is setting up to be a toasty day for Tampa. The largest metro area on the Gulf Coast is predicted to reach a high in the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. It will be a similar situation in the northeastern corner of the peninsula as Jacksonville surges to about 87 degrees despite some scattered clouds. Winds out of the southeast at 10 to 15 mph will take the edge off of the heat slightly in Jacksonville.

Forecast for the Southeast Includes More Rain

Although the rain is likely to dodge the Florida peninsula, the rest of the East Coast is likely to see rain to various degrees in the days ahead. The Carolinas and Georgia will be under the gun for rain showers every day this week while the moisture is not predicted to creep into the Northeast until Friday or Saturday.

For example, Atlanta has rain and thunderstorms in the forecast through the end of the day Friday. After struggling to crack the 70-degree mark for a high on Tuesday, temperatures will be on the upswing, reaching the low 80s by the weekend. Overnight lows will bounce around in the low 60s for the next several days in the Peach City.

The threat of severe weather will likely impact the central and southern High Plains the most this week. However, some of these stronger storm cells could track to the east by the end of the work week.

For instance, places such as Nashville are expecting the greatest threat of severe weather on Friday. The Music City is bracing for light rain early that evolves into widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Rain will intensify in the evening and overnight hours, dropping about a quarter of an inch of accumulation through early Saturday. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s for the balance of the week in Nashville.

We will continue to update this forecast as it becomes more precise.

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