Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season Draws Closer - This is Why

With the flip of the calendar to August, hurricane experts begin to prepare for an increase in activity in the tropics. The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season typically falls during the second week of September, however, August is when you can expect to see a noticeable increase in activity as well as a greater threat of landfalls in the U.S. Here is what you can expect in the weeks ahead in the Atlantic basin.

Understanding the Peak of Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and concludes on November 30. The first two months of the season are generally slow to get going due to a number of prohibitive factors in the basin. For instance, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the month of June typically sees just one storm develop every other year. July usually averages one named storm each year.

The year 2024 has already gone above and beyond the averages with four named storms on the record books. This includes the record-breaking Hurricane Beryl that grew into a Category 5 monster as it fed on the warm ocean waters of the Caribbean Sea.

When looking at averages, August, September, and October are clearly the peak months of activity. Statistics from NOAA demonstrate that 78% of all storms, 84% of hurricanes, and a whopping 93% of all landfalls in the U.S. take place during these three months.

This three-month stretch is also when you can expect the strongest hurricanes to spin up. Looking back over the last four years, all of the most powerful hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S. happened during the peak three-month period. This includes 2023's Idalia that hit the Big Bend region of Florida and 2022's Fiona that struck Puerto Rico before moving on to Atlantic Canada, as well as Ian, a storm that caused mass destruction along Florida's Gulf Coast. Going back to 2021, Ida's landfall in Louisiana and Nicholas' landfall in Texas both happened during the peak of the season. Lastly, the highly active year of 2020 saw Isaias hit North Carolina, Laura make landfall in Louisiana, Sally strike between the border of Florida and Alabama, and Delta come on shore in Louisiana.

Hurricane experts have been busy studying the peak months during some of the most active seasons to get a better idea of what 2024 may deliver. Forecasters have been predicting for months that 2024 would end up being a supercharged season. Looking back through the satellite era that dates back to 1966, the 10 most active seasons produced an average of two more storms in addition to two to three additional hurricanes than the norm.

Activity Tends to Ramp Up Quickly