Parade of Storms Lining Up to Hit the Plains States This Week

Several storm systems are expected to journey across the central and southern Plains this week, bringing repeated downpours and other impacts. Here is a look at this drought-busting forecast.

Dry Start to the Week Will Not Last Long for the Plains

It has been a mostly dry month for much of the nation's heartland thus far. However, that pattern is about to change in the coming days. The incoming moisture is good news for a part of the country that has been dealing with increasing levels of drought in recent weeks. However, areas to the east will be grappling with the threat of river flooding.

The weekend weather served as a harbinger of things to come for the central and southern Plains. It was a rocky Easter week as storms roamed the region. A cold front pushed across the region on Sunday, bringing down the mercury and sending the storm cells farther to the east and into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys.

Monday is shaping up to be a drier day for the Plains states as the front exits. The biggest weather concern to start the new work week will be the gusty winds. Forecasters are warning that the high winds will pair with the dry conditions to raise the threat of wildfires. The greatest risk of these fires breaking out will be across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma and up into western portions of Kansas and Nebraska.

For instance, Guymon, Oklahoma, is under a fire weather watch on Monday due to the threat of high winds. It will be sunny and warm with a high of about 83 degrees. Winds will clock in at 15 to 25 mph with the possibility of stronger gusts. It will get chilly after the sun goes down as the mercury falls into the upper 40s overnight.

Tuesday's Forecast Calling for Return of Storms

Tuesday's forecast is calling for the return of stormy conditions to the southern Plains. The line of storms will eject out of the Rockies and to the east, first taking aim at portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. The latest forecast models do not indicate that these storms will bring a widespread severe weather risk. However, localized areas could see gusty winds and torrential rain. Large hail is also a possibility with this weather event.

Texas and Oklahoma will bear the brunt of the weather hazards on Tuesday. For example, Amarillo, Texas, could see a thunderstorm pop up in the afternoon hours. It will remain breezy and warm with winds out of the south-southwest at 10 to 20 mph and a high of about 82 degrees.

Dodge City, Kansas, will also be under the gun for thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The threat will increase in the overnight hours and into Wednesday. Like the rest of the region, highs will bounce around in the low 80s before falling into the low 50s overnight.

The rain showers and thunderstorms will track to the east beginning in the middle of the week. An influx of moisture filtering up from the Gulf of Mexico will enhance rainfall amounts later in the week across Texas and beyond. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are in the forecast for this part of the country.

Dallas is bracing for thunderstorms to come to life late Tuesday and into Wednesday. This will usher in a few days of scattered storms throughout the metroplex. There will be the potential of heavy rainfall at times during this time through the end of the week. Highs will hover around the 80-degree mark while lows bounce around in the mid 60s.

The heavy rain may be enough to disrupt travel at times. Motorists using interstates 10, 20, 35, and 40 in this region will want to be aware of the potential for reduced visibility and ponding on the roadways.

Flooding Risks Will be Elevated as Waterways Surge

Texas will not be the only state impacted by this week's parade of storms. Oklahoma, Missouri, and Louisiana are also expected to see a surge of moisture that will bring rivers and streams to capacity in some areas. This is a corner of the U.S. that has already seen river flooding at times this spring.

Although areas to the east have had plenty of rain on their hands this month, the moisture is good news for areas to the west that have experienced growing drought conditions. Central Texas, Kansas, and some portions of Oklahoma will benefit from this week's soggy weather pattern.

A good portion of this region has been put under the designation of a moderate drought or higher by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Southwestern Texas is currently under the categorization of an exceptional drought. The dryness has stretched far to the north with metro areas such as Wichita, Kansas, and Rapid City, South Dakota, both coming in well below the historical average for rainfall this year.

For example, Wichita has only seen 3.46 inches of rain this year. This compares to the average by this point in the season of 6.05 inches. Similarly, Rapid City has measured just 1.76 inches of rain, compared to the average of 2.91 inches by the middle of April.

Not surprisingly, this part of the Plains has seen several wildfires break out this year. High winds and the dry landscape are a lethal combination when it comes to wildfires. The expected influx of rain will help to saturate the ground enough to get the existing wildfires under control. This includes the Picker Flats and Last Chance fires burning in the northeastern corner of Oklahoma.

The long-range forecast is predicting that the storm train will continue to chug along through the Plains states into the weekend. Stay tuned as we update this forecast in the days ahead.

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