Number of Hurricanes in 2024 Falling Short of Expectations

Hurricane experts had been in agreement earlier in the year that the 2024 tropical weather season was going to be a doozy in the Atlantic. However, those predictions have fallen way short as the expected storms failed to develop. Here is a look at how the season has shaped up so far as well as what you can expect during the back half.

2024 Hurricane Numbers Falling Below the Statistical Average

The number of named storms to roam the Atlantic basin in 2024 is now behind the average between 1991 and 2020 by two storms. For example, an average year would have recorded nine named storms by September 16 in the Atlantic. The basin is still waiting for the eighth storm to come to life.

With no imminent storms on the horizon, it is unlikely that new features will form over the next week. This will bring the average down even farther heading into the end of September.

While the number of overall named storms has slipped below the average, meteorologists are quick to point out that the number of hurricanes is sitting right at the norm. The 2024 season has seen four hurricanes and one major hurricane of a Category 3 or higher, putting it right at the average through the middle of the month.

Just as the total number of named storms has fallen below average at this point in the season, another key metric is also trending lower. Hurricane experts lean on the measurement known as Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) to determine the overall intensity of a season.

Rather than looking at the specific number of tropical storms and hurricanes, the ACE metric presents a more overall picture of the intensity of the year. This metric adds in both the longevity and the overall strength of the named storms to spit out a number that demonstrates the overall scope of the season.

The ACE metric was sent soaring early in the season thanks to the Category 5 Hurricane Beryl. However, the measurement is now sitting below the seasonal average after the extended period of calm in the Atlantic basin. Beryl is responsible for over one-quarter of the total of the entire ACE measurement for the year, making the monster hurricane an outlier in an otherwise calm summer.