NOAA Update Predicts Delay of La Niña Climate Phase
Alexis Thornton
6 months agoEl Niño is gone but is La Niña starting to take root? And how will this potential development impact the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season? A recent update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is shining light on what you can expect in the coming months. Read on for all of the details of this updated forecast.
Neutral Conditions Now in Place Over the Tropics After Exit of El Niño
According to the update from NOAA, neutral conditions are now in place after El Niño finally dissipated in June. Water temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean swirling near the equator have measured at about average over the last few weeks. Average readings in this part of the tropics translates to a neutral phase, meaning that neither El Niño or La Niña are present.
NOAA is predicting that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will start to cool off in the coming months. This cooling should put the region under the designation of La Niña. As such, NOAA has issued a La Niña watch.
The latest data from NOAA indicates a 70% chance that La Niña will come to life between August and October. This puts this development right in line with the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. There is also the chance that the onset of La Niña could be delayed until November, a change from the forecast earlier in the year. NOAA also said that there is now a 79% chance that La Niña will linger through the winter.
While it may seem fruitless to spend so much time analyzing the water temperatures in the remote equatorial Pacific, these readings greatly influence weather patterns across the globe and into the U.S. For instance, the arrival of La Niña by the fall would likely mean that the South would see a warmer and drier winter ahead. Conversely, the northern Plains would see colder temperatures this winter while the Pacific Northwest will experience more moisture than is typical during this time frame.
The onset of La Niña is not unexpected. This climate phase follows an El Niño phase over half of the time in recorded history. In addition, five of the eight strongest El Niño phases since 1950 saw La Niña set up right on its heels.