New Winter Outlook Looks Promising for Warmer Temperatures

The Weather Company partnered with Atmospheric G2 recently to update its winter outlook. What does the new forecast indicate for the U.S. as the country enters the depths of winter?

As a whole, January is forecast to be slightly colder than the norm for the Northeast. Likewise, the Pacific Northwest is anticipating temperatures to land at below-average readings through March. Conversely, the bulk of the country's southern tier will enjoy temperatures that trend warmer than the historical average. The warmer outlook is also expected to stretch into the Midwest, the Desert Southwest, the southern Plains, and over into the lower and middle portions of the Mississippi Valley.

Read on for all of the details of the updated outlook.

January Forecast

The overall outlook detailed above is not an absolute. For instance, while the Northwest is expecting colder temperatures in general over the course of the entire winter season, January is setting up to be a bit warmer than usual.

It will be the opposite situation in the Northeast with colder than usual temperatures on the horizon for January. This will be the exception to the norm in the U.S. where most areas will enjoy a more moderate stretch of temperatures during the first month of the year. The biggest departure from the average will be in the zone from the Mountain West and into the Mississippi Valley, an area that will see widespread readings that hover above the usual readings for January.

The joint report warns that there is still a great deal of uncertainty built into the long-range January outlook. This is because the forecast will be greatly influenced by what is known as the Pacific-North American pattern beginning the middle of the month. This pattern was also what brought the Arctic air spilling across much of the northern U.S. during the first few weeks of December. The southern dip in the jet stream sent the cold waves of air across much of the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes to start December.

There is the chance that this pattern returns at times in January, bringing more cold air to the eastern U.S. However, there is also the chance that it holds off until February. As such, forecasters are warning that the overall January weather pattern could be more difficult to predict due to the current conflicting sets of data.

What is in Store for February and March?

Looking ahead to February and March, you can expect colder than average readings for the northern tier of the country, including the Northwest and the northern Plains. The most significant departure from normal will be during the month of February.

Meanwhile, the southern U.S. is forecast to see the mercury climb to readings that bounce around above average for both February and March due to the impacts of the emerging La Niña climate phase. Heading up to the Northeast, temperatures will also likely be a bit more moderate than what February typically brings. However, this corner of the country will be more likely to dip down to temperatures that are average for March.

Forecasters are more certain about the long-term outlook for February and March due to the expected classic negative Pacific North American pattern that is predicted to show up during these two months. This negative phase of the pattern generally translates to the jet stream dipping to the south across the western half of the U.S, ushering in colder air from Canada. As such, temperatures are predicted to land at colder than average levels in this third of the country as winter comes to a close.

Conversely, the eastern U.S. will see an opposite pattern as the jet stream is expected to creep up to the north. This movement brings up warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico.

The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 caution that these long-range forecasts are simply indicative of overall patterns. There is still a good chance that periodic blasts of cold air will impact the eastern U.S. at times over the next few months. Similarly, despite a colder than average outlook for much of the West, the region will also experience days when the mercury hovers above normal levels. Checking your local forecast is always the best strategy when making plans that revolve around the weather cooperating.

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