Long-Range Forecast Calling for Significantly Colder Temperatures

The first half of January is shaping up to be colder and snowier for a large portion of the eastern U.S. and the Midwest thanks to a predicted influx of Arctic air coming down from the north. Here is a look at the frigid long-range forecast for the eastern half of the country.

Blast of Colder Air Looming for Central and Eastern U.S.

While it has been a mild end to the year for the central and eastern U.S., Mother Nature is about to remind residents that it is indeed the winter season. Colder air diving down from the Arctic will pair with moisture to deliver what could be significant rounds of snow for the first few weeks of the new year.

The jet stream pattern has been moving in a west to east direction over the last few days. However, the latest forecast models indicate that a southward buckle in the stream will pave the way for Arctic air to creep into the U.S. The forecast is predicting that the dip in the jet stream will begin to take shape this week, signaling the shift in the weather pattern.

The initial surge of colder air will make its way into the U.S. by the middle and latter parts of the week as the current storm system still menacing the East Coast moves off shore. The Arctic air will first impact the north-central portions of the country before moving into the south-central U.S. and over to the Southeast.

After enjoying relatively moderate weather for the end of December and beginning of January, Chicago will drop from highs in the 40s on Tuesday to readings that top out in the 20s by the end of the work week. Heading into next week, there could be days where the mercury struggles to climb out of the 10s in the Windy City.

Forecasters are warning that temperatures will land at levels that are 25 to 35 degrees below the historical average for the beginning of January. This is a time that is already the coldest time of the year.

Sub-zero readings are on the horizon for some parts of the north-central U.S. For instance, temperatures could plummet up to 40 degrees below the typical norm for the northern Plains and the Midwest at times. The interior portions of the Southeast are also expected to see the mercury plunge to readings that are well below the average by the second full week of January.

Threat of Wintry Precipitation Back in the Picture

The arrival of the Arctic air will also help to support the development of lake-effect snow for the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The lake-effect snow machine will bring along the chance of major travel disruptions. The snow paired with the high winds may lead to periodic road closures.

Each storm system will bring the threat of heavy snow or icy conditions. The highest risks of the wintry precipitation will set up to the north and the west of the center of the low pressure present in each weather maker.

It is still too early to determine the precise track of each of the anticipated storm systems. However, forecasters are growing more certain that the upcoming weather pattern will translate to more chances of snow and ice when compared to what the central and eastern U.S. has seen lately. This is because the pattern of Arctic air invasions will fuel more times of wintry precipitation rather than straight rain.

Some of the snow bands may also inch toward the coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and up through New England. The snow may also creep to the south, eventually reaching parts of the south-central U.S. and the Southeast. The overall track of these systems will mean a good shot of snow for several major cities, including New York City, Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, Charlotte, and Atlanta.

The active storm track is expected to fire up during what is typically the coldest days of the winter season. This timing means that travel disruptions are likely both on the roads and in the air.

The latest long-range forecast models indicate that the Midwest may take the brunt of the cold air. The pattern starting to play out demonstrates that some of the storms will weaken by the time that they reach the Ohio Valley. However, the storms are also expected to reorganize when they reach the mid-Atlantic, meaning that this region will not dodge the bulk of the impacts.

An atmospheric roadblock centered over the eastern portion of Canada will serve to prevent some of the storm activity from sneaking to the north. Should it come to fruition, this roadblock would result in more snow falling across the mid-Atlantic and down into the interior Southeast for the first few weeks of January.

Arctic Air Will Push Farther South as the Month Progresses

The frigid air is forecast to dip down into the southeastern corner of the country, a part of the U.S. that does not typically experience Arctic temperatures. As a result, some poorly protected homes may be dealing with frozen pipes and other types of hazards.

Meteorologists are also warning that the cold air may reach as far as South Texas and the central and southern parts of Florida. This could spell trouble for communities not accustomed to cold weather of this degree.

It is important to note that this long-range forecast is simply an observation of expected overall patterns. You will want to keep checking back here for more precise updates as each storm system and batch of cold air arrives to your specific area.

What Does January Typically Bring

Now let's take a look at what January typically brings to the U.S. January is distinguished as being the peak month for snowfall for many communities as well as the coldest time of the year. The Great Lakes, the Midwest, and the Rockies typically pick up the most snow during this month.

Cities that see the greatest snowfall accumulations during the first month of the year include Chicago, coming in at an average of 11.3 inches over the course of January. Salt Lake City sees an average of 12.7 inches to land it at the top of the snowiest month for this metro area at the base of the Wasatch Mountains.

Cleveland measures a whopping 18.4 inches of snow on average in January. While it only sees 5.7 inches during the month, that amount is still good enough to make January the snowiest month in St. Louis.

The end of January is also when the Northeast tends to see the start of the snowiest season. Places like Boston average 14.3 inches in January with 14.4 inches the norm for February. New York City sees slightly more snow in February when compared to January with 8.8 inches the norm for the first month of the year and 10.1 inches the average the following month.

The month of January is also the home to the coldest day of the year for several parts of the U.S. The northern Plains, the Midwest, the Southeast, and the Northeast typically experience the coldest stretch of days during the two last two weeks of the month.

Oddly, the beginning of the month is usually the coldest time of the year for the Rocky Mountains and to the west. From there, the mercury tends to creep up a bit.

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