Limited Rainfall for the Northeast Elevates Wildfire Danger

The threat of wildfires will continue in the northeastern corner of the U.S. as the mercury surges, high winds whip around, and it remains mostly dry. Here is what you need to know about this dry and windy weather pattern.

When Will Widespread Rainfall Arrive to the Parched Northeast?

While there will be a few chances of rainfall throughout the week in the Northeast, the area is not likely to see any widespread rain events. The record stretch of dry conditions will pair with rising temperatures and strong winds to increase the threat of wildfires.

The week got off to a chilly start across the northern tier of the interior Northeast. A quick influx of cold air late Sunday sent the flakes flying across the higher terrains of the Green and White mountains and down into the Adirondacks. However, that cold air exited the region quickly with more unseasonable warmth ahead through at least Thursday.

High temperatures that only reached levels in the 40s and 50s on Monday will be replaced by readings that approach the 80-degree mark on Wednesday and Thursday. Most parts of the Northeast should expect temperatures to hover about 15 to 25 degrees over the historical average. Some communities may even see record-challenging warmth.

While the comfortable temperatures will feel nice, a strong southeasterly breeze will accompany the warmth. The windiest conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. These winds will work with the increasingly dry ground and brush and the soaring temperatures to provide fuel for wildfires to spark and grow.

Local officials are asking residents to be cautious when using open flames or operating outdoor power equipment. This is not the best week to burn fallen leaves or conduct other activities that could send a spark flying. Instead, residents should wait until the temperatures cool off and more rain arrives.

Drought Conditions Worsen

A large zone in the mid-Atlantic, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast has seen widening drought conditions since the summer wrapped up. Some areas of the region have not seen measurable rain in nearly a month.

Forecasters are detailing that there will be two chances for meaningful moisture this week. However, the sporadic nature of this rain event means that some areas will miss out completely on the precipitation. Areas that do pick up measurable rain will only see enough to barely make a dent in the drought.

The leading edge of the warm air mass will usher in the chance of rain late Tuesday and into early Wednesday. The area most likely to see rain out of this system will be across southern New England and down into New York City.

Another shot of rain will happen late Thursday and into Friday as a cold front pushes from west to east. This second chance of rain will likely feature a greater coverage area and higher odds of measurable moisture to locations as far south as Virginia and West Virginia.

A similar cold front created sporadic rain showers and thunderstorms to close out last week. For instance, Providence, Rhode Island is forecast to wake up to cloudy skies and the chance of rain showers on Friday morning. New York City will also see scattered rain showers on Friday morning before the moisture moves out in the afternoon.

Temperatures will fall as the cold front becomes deeply entrenched across the Northwest. However, the mercury is not going to fall significantly below the average for the beginning of November. Instead, it will just feel so much colder because of the warm weather as of late.

Those who like the warmth will be happy to learn that the surge of cooler air will not stick around for long. Another wave of warmer temperatures will set up by the end of the weekend, lingering into next week. This building warmth will once again elevate the threat of wildfires.

While the eastern U.S. continues to see dry and warm weather, a more active storm pattern will set up over the Plains and the Mississippi Valley as the calendar flips from October to November. Unfortunately, this wave of frequent rain is not expected to dip deep to the eastern third of the country.

While a few errant rain showers may sneak to the east, it is not likely to be enough to chip away at the drought. The long-range forecast for the East Coast is calling for a stubborn area of high pressure to remain across the Atlantic Seaboard through next week and beyond. Although the temperatures will fluctuate greatly at times, the weather pattern will not be conducive to widespread precipitation.

Did you find this content useful? Feel free to bookmark or to post to your timeline for reference later.