How to Use Social Media Smartly When Looking at Snowfall Forecasts

Social media provides a number of resources if used wisely. However, it can often deliver false information as it relates to the weather, particularly when it comes to predicting snowfall. Read on for the details about how to look at snowfall maps on social media to glean the most accurate information.

Why Early Forecasting Models Can be Inaccurate

Forecasters tend to race to be the first to put out a snowfall forecast. Unfortunately, some of these early forecasts end up being wildly inaccurate. The simple truth is that even the most technically advanced forecasting models are not accurate more than three days out of a storm's expected arrival.

While social media producers will continue to try to be the first to predict a winter storm and its anticipated snowfall amounts, there are things that you can do to ensure that you are taking in the most accurate information.

It is not uncommon for meteorologists to be able to predict the chance of a winter storm up to a week in advance. There are various atmospheric elements that help experts to predict the high probability of an advancing weather maker. However, anything more than a few days out can be all over the map when it comes to estimating how much snow will fall with any particular storm.

This is why trusted forecasters tend to use the long-range models to simply make people aware of the potential of an approaching weather system. A professional meteorologist will add the disclaimer that the exact snowfall amounts cannot be pinpointed as the models will certainly change as the storm nears closer.

There are a variety of reasons why providing accurate long-range winter forecasts is not an exact science. The elements that need to come together to produce a storm are often located in remote areas thousands of miles away that do not have accurate forecasting stations in place. For instance, a storm traveling over the Pacific Ocean will go through several changes that are not detected due to the absence of data stations in this corner of the world. By the time that the system enters the area of the basin where data is available, it could be right on the doorstep of communities along the West Coast.

The lack of measurements and data helps to explain why early forecasts often contain a number of errors. During this stage of the forecasting process, meteorologists do not have the necessary tools to provide more than a simplistic overview of what may transpire.

Early forecasting models also struggle to pinpoint the precise location and depth of where the cold air is originating and heading. This uncertainty makes it challenging for the experts to ascertain snowfall forecasts using just computer models. As a result, social media users often see forecasts from different sources that vary significantly. Even the same models can change their forecasts dramatically from one run to another.