How Reliable Is the Weather Forecast?

Weather apps have been an integral part of our lifestyle. That familiar routine of getting the forecast before dressing and planning the weekend has become a sort of muscle memory. Most phones come standard with weather widgets these days. And who can blame us? Nobody likes getting rained on unexpectedly. The rain jackets stuffed into a backpack on a sunny day, those canceled beach trips, barbecues soaked because forecasts just went wrong; these scenarios beg the question, how reliable are weather predictions, really?

How valid are weather predictions?

Interestingly, studies from the National Weather Service seem to paint a pretty interesting picture. The current 7-day forecast, which people generally check the most, is correct about 80% of the time. That may not be perfect, but it is pretty reliable for planning a weekend outdoors. Check the weather for tomorrow? Those are even better: accurate about 90% of the time(1).

The real shock comes with longer forecasts. Those 10-day forecasts showing up everywhere from the Weather Channel to countless smartphone apps? Their accuracy drops significantly. And those extended 14-day forecasts? They might as well be throwing darts at a board most times.