Gulf Coast Prepares for Surge of Tropical Weather This Week
Alexis Thornton
Last weekA tropical rainstorm has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, setting up to take aim at the coastline of the southern U.S. Here is the latest on this development as well as a look at the rest of the tropics.
Tropical Rainstorm Targeting Southern U.S. Coastline
A new tropical rainstorm churning in the Gulf is just one of a handful of features in the Atlantic basin. It has been a quiet stretch of days across the Atlantic during a time when activity typically peaks. However, forecasters are warning that the action is getting fired up again as the statistical peak of the season approaches on September 10.
The feature currently in the Bay of Campeche is forecast to move to the north in the days ahead, sending it into the exceptionally warm waters in this part of the Gulf of Mexico. The bathwater warm waters will work to fuel the storm, giving it more energy as it heads across northeastern Mexico and into the southern U.S. This will result in several rounds of heavy rain and strong winds for the region.
The rainstorm is churning off the coast of the state of Tabasco in Mexico. The current forecast models indicate that it will strengthen by the middle of the week as it moves into the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper 80s in this part of the basin, well over the recognized threshold for tropical development.
The southeastern corner of Mexico and parts of Central America will see the impacts first. Because of the hilly terrain of this region, mudslides are also not out of the question.
Should this system take on official tropical characteristics, it will be called Francine. The most likely time frame for intensification will be late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Forecasters are warning that the warm ocean waters could be enough to negate the wind shear and support the process of rapid intensification prior to landfall. Residents along the northern and western portions of the Gulf Coast will want to stay on top of this developing situation.
The moisture associated with this system will move across parts of the coastline of northeastern Mexico on its way to southeastern Texas and across the coast into Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. You can expect to see this rain pick up on Monday morning for the far southern fringe of Texas. The moisture will hit Louisiana early Tuesday.
How much rain should you expect? The zone from McAllen, Texas to Shreveport, Louisiana should expect rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over the next week. The immediate Texas coastline from Brownsville to Houston should brace for 4 to 8 inches of rain during this time period.
Rainfall of this degree will raise the risk of flash flooding and other disruptions across the impacted area. The threats will be the highest in the areas that saw heavy rain last week as the grounds are already saturated. This includes a large portion of eastern Texas and into Louisiana.
A dome of high pressure set up to the north will block the rain from traveling extensively to the north, likely keeping it in the south-central U.S. This means that the dry areas of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys will miss out on this rain. A large zone of the central U.S. is in desperate need of a good dousing of rain. Water levels along the major waterways of the middle and lower Mississippi River are at dangerously low levels, affecting the transport of goods.