Forecasters Warn Gulf Coast Could See Tropical Weather by Next Week

Meteorologists are becoming increasingly more confident that the U.S. Gulf Coast could be under the threat of tropical weather next week. Here is a more detailed look at what forecasters are keeping an eye on in the tropics heading into the weekend.

New Tropical Threat Brewing

There is a good chance that a tropical weather feature could impact the Gulf Coast next week. The greatest risk of development will take place across the northwestern Caribbean Sea before moving into the southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of how much this feature intensifies, its impacts will likely be felt to some degree along the Gulf Coast.

When looking at historical averages, tropical storms that come together in this part of the Gulf during the month of September have a good shot of strengthening into hurricanes. This is because sea surface temperatures in the Gulf tend to run exceptionally warm this time of the year, laying the groundwork for the chance of rapid intensification. A number of major hurricanes have come to life in this part of the basin before coming onshore in the U.S. in recent years.

The position of the jet stream is known to send established tropical storms into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico in September. This is because the movement of the jet stream is most likely to pull tropical weather systems to the north and the east from the Atlantic. This movement translates to a higher chance of direct strikes along the coastline from Louisiana and into Florida, differing from a greater risk of impacts to the Texas coast earlier in the season.

The most likely time frame for tropical impacts will be during the middle to latter part of next week. Potential issues include rough surf conditions, storm surge, high winds, and flooding rainfall.

What is Fueling This Tropical Development

There are a number of reasons why forecasters are becoming more concerned about the possibility of tropical weather next week. The formation of a Central America gyre will support the development of a large area of low pressure conducive to producing rain showers and thunderstorms. These gyres tend to form with greater frequency this time of the year.

Additionally, a southward dip in the jet stream will influence the track of this potential feature. Should the forecast come to fruition, the storm is likely to evolve into a hurricane.

A weak jet stream would result in a tropical feature that ends up closer to Texas. However, the latest forecast models indicate that the jet stream will exert enough power to pull the weather maker to the north and the east.

The bath water warm temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico will amplify the chances of tropical development. This warm water stretches well below the surface, meaning that cooling winds will not prove to be a significant prohibitive factor for formation and intensification.

Lastly, wind shear is also not expected to be a major factor next week. These stiff breezes generally work to inhibit the growth of tropical weather. Without strong wind shear in the area, tropical weather features are free to strengthen as they continue their journey.