Forecasters Predicting a New Hurricane Will Develop in the Caribbean

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are becoming more confident that a tropical rainstorm in the Caribbean will soon evolve into a hurricane. There is also a good chance that this feature will track toward Florida. Here is a look at what meteorologists are monitoring and what impacts are expected for the U.S. and when.

Is Hurricane Sara on the Way?

A large zone of showers and thunderstorms spinning over the central Caribbean is forecast to become the next named feature of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. While there are several potential tracks that are still possible, one of the models indicates that the features will deliver significant impacts to Florida next week.

Should this forecast come to fruition, Florida would see its fourth direct hurricane strike of the season. The current record is three direct strikes in one season.

Although the 2024 season is coming to an end, temperatures remain unseasonably warm across most of the Caribbean. This warm water is pairing with low amounts of wind shear to lay the groundwork for tropical development. Without sufficient wind shear in place, storms are able to grow and intensify as strong centers of circulation form. In other words, it is only a matter of time before the next named storm comes to life.

The next name up for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Sara. There are currently no other features of note in the basin, meaning that this area of concern in the Caribbean will most likely take on the name Sara in the days ahead.

Sara will become the 12th hurricane of the season should it evolve as predicted. Forecasters are also warning that Sara could intensify quickly once it takes on tropical characteristics. The historical average for any given season is seven hurricanes, putting this year well above pace already.