Forecasters Monitoring New Tropical Weather Event in the Caribbean

Forecasters are becoming more certain in their predictions that the tropical rainstorm hovering in the central Atlantic will become stronger as it moves closer to the Caribbean in the coming days. Here is an updated look at what the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring in the tropics to start the week.

Tropical Rainstorm Showing Signs of Intensification

The next named system to form in the Atlantic basin will be called Ernesto. Meteorologists are growing more confident that this will happen this week. The feature is showing signs that it could intensify into the next tropical storm or hurricane, just days after Hurricane Debby made landfall in Florida. The system could take on the defined features of a tropical storm by Monday. Sustained winds of at least 39 mph are needed to designate the feature with a name.

The tropical weather maker is expected to track into the northeastern corner of the Caribbean where it will meet up with exceptionally warm ocean waters. Sea surface temperatures in this part of the basin are well over the recognized threshold of 78 degrees for tropical development. The current readings are hovering between 82 and 84 degrees.

In addition to the sea surface readings measuring above the norm, the Ocean Heat Content measurement is also atypically warm. This reading measure how deep the warm water extends. This reading is coming at atypically warm measuring hundreds of feet below the surface of the ocean.

These warm readings will support the potential of rapid intensification should a tropical feature spring to life. Hurricane Beryl from earlier in the year went through the process of this rapid intensification due to these warm waters.

Forecast Track of Tropical Development