Florida and Southeast in Impact Zone for Tropical Weather Maker

As expected, the first weekend of August is going to deliver a powerful punch from Mother Nature as a tropical rainstorm in the Caribbean moves over Florida and into the southeastern U.S. Here is a look at what is happening this weekend in the tropics and who is in the crosshairs.

Florida Braces for Tropical Weather Impacts

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are warning that the tropical rainstorm spinning over the Caribbean will push into Florida and the southeastern U.S. this weekend as a likely tropical storm. The feature is predicted to intensify as it moves to the north along the Gulf Coast of Florida in the coming hours, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, and severe weather. There is also the chance that this system could stall along the southeastern coastline of the U.S. early next week, becoming a prolific rain generator.

Meteorologists have been watching this area of development since early in the week as it moved through the Leeward Islands, across Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. The next land mass in its way is the U.S.

Florida was put under a state of emergency on Thursday evening as the forecast models became more clear. By Friday, the NHC had classified the features as Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

The latest models indicate that the rainstorm will move away from Cuba and into the eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday where it will pick up steam and likely evolve into a tropical depression before becoming a named tropical storm. The next name on the list for tropical features is Debby.

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are hovering in the mid to upper 80s. This is well over the minimum threshold of about 78 degrees for tropical development and support. In addition, little to no wind shear in this part of the Gulf will further support the intensification of this system.

The uncertainty with forecasting the future development of this feature will be the amount of time that it spends spinning over these warm waters. Should the system hit the western coast of Florida sooner rather than later, its intensification could be limited in nature.

Conversely, there is the chance that the storm could remain in the Gulf until later Sunday, giving it more time over the warm ocean waters to pick up even more in intensity and size. This could spell trouble for those in its path when it moves over northern Florida because it would have the time and opportunity to potentially develop into a hurricane.

What to Expect in Florida on Saturday

Floridians will begin to feel the impacts of this system on Saturday. Miami is forecast to see rainfall amounts of about one inch on Monday. It will be a windy day with speeds of 15 to 25 mph on tap. Temperatures will hover in the low to mid 80s for both highs and lows.

The southwestern coast of Florida will take the brunt of the impacts. After picking up over an inch of rain overnight Friday, Fort Myers is in line to see another 1 to 2 inches Saturday night and into Sunday. Winds will be out of the east at speeds of 10 to 20 mph on Saturday with highs maxing out in the upper 80s. Sunday is shaping up to be even wetter and windier. Stay tuned as the forecast becomes more fine-tuned.

Key West will also see a messy Saturday with a good shot of scattered thunderstorms and winds hitting speeds of 20 to 30 mph. The resort town will see a high of about 86 degrees with lows slipping just a few more degrees.

Regardless of its path, most of Florida should be prepared for a soggy and windy weekend. Several rounds of gusty thunderstorms, heavy rain, and rough surf conditions will spread to the north over Florida on Saturday and Sunday. Those along the coastline should be prepared for waterspouts while areas farther inland need to be aware of the risk of tornadoes.

Beach goers should pay close attention to local restrictions in the water. The impacts of the storm are likely to lead to strong rip currents and rough sea conditions throughout the weekend and into next week.

There is a good amount of moisture associated with this system. Rainfall rates could hit a few inches per hour during the peak of the storm. Residents and visitors should be prepared for slow travel and the possibility of urban flooding.

Storm surge of 3 to 6 feet is possible in some of Florida's bays where the storm hits the closest. The storm surge levels will likely be the highest just to the south of where the eye of the storm comes on shore.

System Likely to Reorganize and Intensify for a Second Time in the Atlantic

By the end of the weekend and into early next week, the torrential rain and gusty conditions will move into the southeastern corner of the country. There is also a good chance that the tropical weather maker will re-emerge in the Atlantic Ocean and go through a second round of intensification. The models indicate that the system would build again off the coastline of northern Florida or Georgia.

This projected path would mean that the Carolinas would see the bulk of the rainfall from the second potential landfall. Even if the storm does not intensify again over the Atlantic, the Carolinas and the southeastern corner of Virginia are likely to see strong winds, significant rain, and dangerous surf conditions.

A dip in the jet stream over the northeastern U.S. may translate to the system pushing up the coast into the mid-Atlantic and New England coastal areas throughout the week. The tropical system may also merge with a secondary non-tropical system in the Northeast. The interaction of these two storms would amplify the rainfall amounts and raise the risk of flooding for the region.

The developments in the tropics this weekend are not a surprise to hurricane experts. Meteorologists have been warning for months that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was shaping up to be an incredibly active time. These predictions were proven right when Category 5 Hurricane Beryl came to life in a record amount of time.

Did you find this content useful? Feel free to bookmark or to post to your timeline for reference later.