Election Day Forecast Indicates Potentially Dicey Conditions in Central U.S.

Americans will head to the polls to cast their vote on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. What will the weather hold on Election Day? Here is an early look at the forecast for this important day.

Preliminary Election Day Forecast

The bulk of the country will encounter calm conditions on Election Day, helping to support turnout at the polls. Approximately 75% of the lower 48 is forecast to enjoy dry conditions on Election Day. This includes calm conditions expected for the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor along the East Coast.

However, there are some potential trouble spots brewing in the central U.S, including possible disruptions in some critical swing states. Forecasters are closely monitoring the track of a two-pronged storm system and its trailing cold front. The duo of storms will move across the Rocky Mountains before ejecting down into the Plains states, the Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Midwest. The exact timing of this storm will influence what parts of the country will see possible complications with the weather on Election Day.

Snow is in the forecast late Monday and into Tuesday for the Rockies. For instance, Denver is forecast to see the flakes begin to fly Monday evening. While the snow will not be heavy in nature, there could be a light accumulation on Tuesday morning when voters hope to visit the polls. More snow is in the forecast for the Mile High City on Tuesday evening. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will hover in the upper 40s with overnight lows landing right about the freezing mark.

Although the snow will begin to dissipate as the morning approaches and polls open across most of the Rockies, the same system will produce the chance of rain and thunderstorms for the Plains and the Mississippi Valley throughout the day Tuesday. This weather maker is forecast to push through the central and southern Rockies and make its way to the central U.S. as Election Day progresses.

It is still too early to predict with certainty how quickly this storm system will move. The speed and the exact track of the weather disruptions will depend on the forward speed of another storm in the Pacific Northwest as well as potential tropical activity coming together in the Caribbean.

Severe Storms Could Hamper Voting Efforts

At this point, it looks as if the greatest potential for stormy conditions on Election Day will be in an area stretching from Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi and to the north up through Illinois. There is also the chance that this weather could impact the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin.

This is a good reminder to take advantage of early voting if your location provides this opportunity. Voting when the weather is clear is better than having to wait in line in the rain or cold to cast your ballot.

The moisture machine is predicted to be significant enough to raise the risk of localized flash flooding in a zone stretching for 1,500 miles from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. These storms will pack the chance of lightning, a danger to people waiting outside in lines to enter the voting precinct.

Residents in this area should check the hourly forecast before heading out to vote. The day is not likely to be a total washout, meaning that voters may find periods with more favorable weather.

Voters should also be aware of another area of precipitation that could form on the cold side of the storm system. This potential area of concern will expand from the eastern portion of Colorado and up into Minnesota. The cold temperatures in place in this part of the country could support the development of snow.

Even if it does not snow, the arrival of rain to a part of the nation that has not seen any precipitation lately will certainly raise the risk of slippery roads. All of the oily residue that has gathered on the dry roads could create slick conditions for voters.