Developing Tropical Weather Expected to Strike the Caribbean

A tropical storm is brewing in the northern Caribbean, threatening to become the next named feature of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Where will the potential tropical activity head and will the U.S. see the impacts? Read on for what the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is predicting.

More Trouble Brewing in the Tropics

The northern portion of the Caribbean is preparing for a potential strike from a tropical storm late this week and into the weekend. The developing feature could hit Puerto Rico and the Bahamas if it comes to fruition. Likely impacts include heavy rain and high winds throughout the northern Caribbean.

The tropical rainstorm will first take a course that travels to the north of the Leeward Islands. From this point, the feature is likely to move to the south. The system will be more likely to intensify if it spends a good amount of time churning over the waters north of the Leeward Islands. There is a good chance that the weather maker will evolve into a named storm, potentially even a hurricane. The next name up on the list for this season is Nadine.

The models are still in flux regarding the track of the feature in the days ahead. While there is a chance that the storm could move into the southern Bahamas, it is more likely that it travels to the southwest and over the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba.

By the end of the weekend, it is forecast that the feature will meet up with a strutter amount of wind shear circulating to the north. These mitigating winds will work to break apart the system. There is also the chance that the feature will move over the mountains that dot the landscape of the Greater Antilles. This would also serve to break up the tropical feature.

Forecasters do not believe that this system has a strong chance of surviving long enough to reach Florida. For this to happen, the predicted wind shear would need to drastically weaken. In addition, a storm predicted to set up in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Bahamas would need to move out of the way to allow the tropical feature to approach Florida.

However, it is still likely that the winds generated by the tropical feature will create rough surf conditions, coastal flooding, and minor beach erosion for the Atlantic coastline of the Florida peninsula. Beachgoers will want to be aware of these risks if headed out to the coast through the weekend.

What the Northern Caribbean Should Expect