Caribbean Sea Forecast to Spark New Tropical Weather Concerns

The final month of the Atlantic hurricane season is upon us. What are the signs in the tropics telling forecasters about the potential of more development? And will any of these potential features impact the U.S.? Here is what you need to know.

Quiet Period in the Atlantic Predicted to Come to an End

All has been quiet and calm in the Atlantic basin but that is all about to change as the calendar flips to November. There are currently no active tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere throughout the Caribbean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Gulf of Mexico. However, the experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) know that now is not the time to let down your guard.

The Caribbean Sea is likely to be the breeding ground for any new tropical weather features. Most activity that fires up in November tends to happen in areas closer to the U.S. rather than originating off of the coast of Africa as is more common during the early part of the season.

The NHC has currently assigned a medium risk of potential for tropical weather to form in the Caribbean Sea. Atmospheric conditions are likely to support development across the central Caribbean beginning late this week and heading into next week. The exceptionally warm water in this part of the basin will pair with low levels of wind shear to create the fertile breeding ground. These supportive factors will also be helped by the Central American gyre weather system, a development that generally promotes more tropical activity at the end of the season.

The next name up on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season designated list is Patty, followed by Rafael.