Caribbean and U.S. in Crosshairs of Potential Tropical Weather Development

Interests in the Caribbean and the coastal U.S. are keeping an eye on a tropical rainstorm that has a good chance of intensifying in the days to come. Here is a look at what is happening in the tropics as the month of July comes to a close.

Tropical Wave Coming Off Africa Showing Signs of Strengthening

August is typically the month when activity in the Atlantic basin begins to heat up. Right on time, a tropical rainstorm is threatening to intensify as it moves over the Atlantic and into the Caribbean. While this weather maker may encounter some mitigating factors in the short term, conditions will become more supportive of further development as it inches closer to the U.S.

As is generally the case in August, tropical waves tend to originate in the Indian Ocean and move off into the Atlantic Ocean after crossing over Africa. A small handful of these waves eventually strengthen into tropical depressions, storms, or hurricanes. This is precisely what happened with this particular tropical feature.

This wave is currently spinning a few hundred miles to the east of the eastern fringe of the Caribbean. The rainstorm is trying to hold it together as it moves through an area of dry air in this part of the Atlantic. Ample amounts of prohibitive wind shear are also working to tamper the development of this feature at this time.

However, forecasters are warning that the rainstorm will inch into a zone with low amounts of wind shear by the end of the week. This area is also expected to pack sufficient levels of moisture, supporting its growth in the days to come.

Additionally, the rainstorm is forecast to interact with a secondary area of low pressure in the atmosphere shortly. This will amplify its development. How the two areas of low pressure merge and where they likely come together as one larger tropical rainstorm will influence its track and intensity through the Caribbean by the end of the week.

For instance, if the larger rainstorm moves to the north or the south of the land masses that make up the Greater Antilles, the feature will see higher odds of intensification. This potential path would also take it into the warmer waters of the basin, enhancing its growth even further. Conversely, if it moves over the higher terrains of Puerto Rico or Hispaniola, it will be more likely to break apart and lose its strength and size.

Where to Expect the Impacts in the Days Ahead