Atlantic Showing Signs of Development as Peak Season Nears

Right on cue, the tropics are experiencing the necessary conditions needed to support tropical weather development as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season inches closer. Here is a look at what is happening in the Atlantic basin as the calendar flips from August to September.

Tropical Atlantic Showing Signs of Life

The tropics have been relatively quiet since Ernesto roared through the Atlantic. But forecasters are warning that this is likely the calm before the storm as the statistical peak of the Atlantic tropical weather season approaches. With an average peak date of September 10, this is typically the time of the year when you can expect tropical weather to fire up with greater frequency and intensity.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring more waves of moisture moving off of the coast of Africa and into the Atlantic Ocean. This increase in moisture is a signal that things are beginning to pick up speed in the basin.

One area of potential concern is centered over the south-central Atlantic and extending to the Windward Islands. In addition to the influx of moisture in this corner of the ocean, decreasing amounts of both wind shear and dry and dusty air will also support the development of more tropical activity. While the ocean water temperatures in this part of the Atlantic cooled after Ernesto churned through, the mercury is back on the upswing. Warm ocean waters are a crucial ingredient for tropical weather development.

In the near future, wind shear levels may still be too powerful to encourage a tropical system to take root. However, any system that survives into the central or western portions of the Caribbean will likely find a supportive environment to grow and thrive.

How quickly a new feature develops will dictate its likely track. For instance, a potential feature coming out of this part of the basin could turn to the north and away from the heart of the Caribbean or it could continue to the west and closer to some of the more populated islands. A tropical wave that grows at a faster rate will likely make a turn to the northeast, sending it over the northern Caribbean. Conversely, a system that takes longer to gel would likely stay on a westerly track, sending it into the western portion of the Caribbean.

The tropical wave in question is forecast to move into the Windward Islands region late Sunday and into Monday. This will result in heavy rain, rough seas, and the possibility of gusty thunderstorms. By Tuesday or Wednesday, it could be Puerto and Hispaniola back under the gun for tropical weather.

In addition to the tropical wave coming off of Africa, the NHC is also monitoring another surge of moisture that could creep into the Gulf of Mexico at the end of this weekend or nearly next week. This is another feature that bears watching if you live along the Gulf Coast.