What to Expect for the 2024 Wildfire Season in the U.S.

Looking Back at the 2023 Wildfire Season

The year 2023 brought a record number of wildfires to North America. Fires burning out of control in Canada sent plumes of smoke to the south and into the U.S., creating dangerous air quality conditions for millions of Americans.

The historic wildfire season in Canada was responsible for the burning of over 45.7 million acres. This translates to almost three times higher than the previous record, dating back to 1995 when 17.5 millions were scorched.

The fires in Canada significantly impacted air quality levels throughout a large portion of the Midwest and the Northeast due to the normal flow of air.

While Canada was grappling with the record wildfires, the U.S. got off relatively easy. There were 2,693,910 acres of land burned in 2023, well below the historical average of about 7 million acres.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), the year was also distinguished by seeing the lowest amount of acres burned since 1998 when only 1.3 million acres were torched.

The worst wildfire of the year in 2023 happened on the Hawaiian island of Maui. The popular tourist town of Lahaina saw a firestorm that killed 101 people and destroyed much of the resort area.

The Lahaina wildfire ended up being the deadliest of its kind to sweep across the U.S. in more than a century.

What Does the 2024 Wildfire Season Have in Store?

While it is impossible to forecast with precision, experts are estimating that 2024 will end up with a below normal number of wildfires and acres burned. Most estimates are coming at between 4 and 6 million acres lost in 2024, landing it below the norm of about 7 million.

Like 2023, the worst of the fires is expected to burn across Canada. The neighbor to the north is forecast to see fire activity that averages below the record-breaking season of 2023 but still slightly above the historical norm.

Also similar to 2023, the U.S. will likely see the negative impacts of the wildfires in Canada in the form of poor air quality conditions.

You will want to stay abreast of the air quality forecast in your area, particularly if you are in a vulnerable population.

Timing of Wildfires

Forecasters are predicting that it could be a slow start to the wildfire season in the western U.S.

A stormy weather pattern in the Pacific Northwest during the late spring months will keep the grounds wet and suppress the development of fires in this corner of the country.

In fact, prescribed burns that normally happen during May and early June in the Northwest may be paused as a result of the expected above average levels of precipitation.

As is typical, the risk of wildfires will increase by the middle of the summer in the Northwest and over into the northern Rockies. The height of the season in this region will pick up in July and last into the early part of fall.

Meanwhile, the timing of the arrival of the annual monsoon season will influence the chances of wildfires in the Desert Southwest.

While these storms provide an influx of moisture into the region, they also raise the risk of fires started at the hands of lightning strikes. The monsoon season is forecast to fire up across the Southwest in July and August, a bit later than normal.

The interior portions of the Southwest are forecast to see warmer temperatures and dry conditions at the beginning of the summer. This will inevitably increase the concerns of wildfires in this part of the western U.S.

California has typically seen the worst fires break out over the last decade. However, climatologists are optimistic that the Golden State will get a break this year in fire activity thanks to the exceptionally wet winter and start to spring.

The wildfire season is likely to be delayed in California, not hitting its stride until September and lingering into November.

Despite the prediction of a delayed start to the wildfire season in California, climatologists warn that you cannot rule out the chance of random blazes igniting earlier in the summer.

This will be particularly true if the state experiences an extended period of heat and dry conditions in May and June.

What About the Rest of the U.S.?

One area of the U.S. that is not likely to catch a break this year is Texas. The panhandle of the Lone Star State already experienced the largest wildfire in the country thus far in 2024.

This blaze left behind two fatalities while also killing at least 7,000 cattle when it burned through over 1 million acres at the end of February and into March.

Significant wildfires are also anticipated across parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan this summer.

The lack of snow in this region last winter has left the grounds especially dry. This dryness is combining with the record-breaking warm temperatures this spring to raise the risk of fires in the coming months for the Upper Midwest.

An increase in thunderstorm activity in June and July in this region will also create an enhanced threat of dry lightning strikes sparking the flames.

The wildfire season for the Northeast is expected to be relatively mild this season due to the meaningful influx of moisture as of late.

Did you find this content useful? Feel free to bookmark or to post to your timeline for reference later.